In his latest market update, crypto analyst VisionPulsed downplayed the bullish outlook for Dogecoin, arguing that reaching the desired dollar level requires a delicate balance of market forces that have yet to materialize. While he acknowledged the possibility of a speculative surge, he cautioned that general conditions have not stabilized yet, delaying the massive breakout for the currency.
How can Dogecoin reach $1?
He presents his argument based on the data: unless Ethereum achieves a strong breakout to new record levels with the prolonged halving cycle and the global liquidity landscape (M2) remaining supportive, the upcoming equivalent rise of Dogecoin will remain out of reach. He points out that the immediate backdrop is Bitcoin's recovery, again ruling out the possibility of a broad altcoin rally.
Ethereum improved its setup by recording a new peak for its cycle and surpassing the $4000 level, but it is now stuck below the last two technical barriers of 2021 - "the May 2021 peak and the historical 2021 peak," as he clearly expressed: "Once Ethereum surpasses this level, it officially enters a bull market." Until that is confirmed, discussing the imminent "doge to the moon" phase is considered premature.
Dogecoin's price performance hasn't improved the situation. VisionPulsed highlighted a clear shooting star candle that formed after a "rush" of traders, describing it as "not the candle we want to see." He referred to a previous instance where a similar wick appeared before a local reversal, using it as a warning against interpreting short-selling as a sustainable trend.
According to him, Dogecoin is still in a broad and volatile accumulation phase - an area he describes as a bottoming process that may involve false sell-offs from both sides - rather than a confirmed upward trend. Even in a positive scenario, he warns that a collapse in general conditions could lead to "another phase" of price declines before any real altcoin season begins.
The time factor represents the second pillar in his analysis. He refers to the passing of 486 days since the last Bitcoin halving as a recurring turning point in previous cycles. He said, "We are quickly approaching what is considered the last bullish push in 2021... after 486 days from the halving," reminding that both of the last two cycles saw a significant correction followed by a final rise around that period.
With April 19, 2024 set as the halving date, August 18, 2025 is the same date this time - a date he sees as a context rather than a fate. He affirms, "No guarantees," reflecting on the limits of historical harmony.
Liquidity - from the common M2 money supply perspective - remains supportive, but not critical in his view. He acknowledges that "everyone" is watching M2, currently indicating an "upward potential during this period." However, he emphasizes that this relationship is not eternal: in previous cycles, M2 continued to rise even as cryptocurrencies fell in bear markets. The conclusion is practical and not definitive: "We'll use it until it fails," but it alone does not guarantee continued rises.
Based on this macroeconomic and liquidity backdrop, he concludes a clear gateway function for Dogecoin's primary target. To achieve a sustainable trend towards the dollar price, three conditions must be met: Ethereum must surpass its 2021 high to confirm a new bull market; the "extended" halving cycle window - centered around a rhythm of about 486 days post-halving - must pave the way for a potential recovery; and the expansion of global money supply (M2) must maintain sufficient support to sustain risk appetite.
In Dogecoin's record, it allows for significant volatility without changing its structure. He said, "Could we see 30-cent up and down fluctuations? Definitely," considering these fluctuations as trading ranges within a broader consolidation process, not the start of a potential rise. What turns this range into a trend is not a single candle or a single breakout, but the concurrence among multiple assets that he reiterated throughout the update.