Although there were fluctuations in the market today, the overall sentiment is stable, and the risk-averse sentiment before the release of the CPI is relatively normal. Last month's broad CPI was 2.7%, with market expectations at 2.8%, and the Cleveland Fed predicting 2.72%. Unless there are unexpected events, the result is likely to be in the 2.7%-2.8% range; if it is below 2.7%, it would be favorable for the market. The month-on-month CPI expectation is lower than the previous value, indicating that inflation transmission pressure is not significant; the core CPI is higher than or equal to last month, reflecting that inflation in the United States is still rising, and the data has not yet included the formal tariff impact.

The impact of tariffs on the market is gradually being digested, and the current focus is on the policy game between Trump’s faction and the Fed's conservatives. If the data is good, everyone will be happy; if it is poor, it may not necessarily be pessimistic, as the probability of a rate cut in September remains high. The outcome of this market and Fed game is still uncertain.

Regarding $BTC, the trading volume has increased since Monday, in line with expectations, mainly driven by short-term investors, with weekend gains attracting trading activity. Early investors remain cautious and have not sold off due to BTC's return to $120,000. The two main support levels are stable, and holders are gradually shifting towards a long-term perspective. The seventh support zone is forming, but it still needs to be observed whether it stabilizes. Overall, short-term funds are active, but the strength of long-term holdings remains stable, providing strong support for prices.