In the latest market update, crypto analyst VisionPulsed has lowered optimistic expectations for Dogecoin, arguing that achieving the long-desired $1 milestone will require precise adjustments of market forces, which has yet to materialize. While acknowledging the potential for speculative surges, he warns that the overall context is still not complete, causing the parabolic breakout momentum of this coin to remain delayed.
How Can Dogecoin Reach $1?
He makes a case based on data: unless Ethereum breaks out strongly to new highs while the halving cycle period is extended and the global M2 liquidity context remains supportive, the next parabolic rise of Dogecoin is still out of reach. He notes that the immediate context is the recovery of Bitcoin, once again dismissing the prospect of a widespread altcoin rally.
Ethereum has improved its setup by creating a new high and surpassing the $4,000 range, but it is currently stuck below the last two technical barriers of 2021—"the 2021 high in May and the 2021 high, which is the all-time high." He states clearly: "Once ETH surpasses this high, ETH officially enters a bull market." Until that confirmation is made, he considers discussions about the upcoming "Doge to the moon" phase to be premature.
The price action of Dogecoin itself has not helped the situation. Vision Pulsed emphasizes a clear top-wick candle forming after traders "rushed in," calling it "certainly not the candle you want to see." He points to a previous case where a similar candle wick appeared before a local reversal, using it to caution against interpreting sell-offs as a sustainable trend.
According to him, Dogecoin is still in a broad and choppy accumulation phase - an area he describes as a bottom formation process that may include fakeouts on both sides - rather than a confirmed uptrend. Even in a positive scenario, he warns that broken general conditions could lead to "another round" of price declines before any real altcoin season takes place.
The time factor is the second pillar of his analysis. He marks the 486 days since the most recent Bitcoin halving as a periodic inflection point in previous cycles. "We are quickly approaching what is considered the final bullish push of 2021... 486 days since the halving," he said, recalling that both of the most recent cycles saw a significant correction followed by a final bull run around that timeframe.
With April 19, 2024, being the halving date, August 18, 2025, is the similar threshold this time—a day he considers as context, not fate. "Nothing is guaranteed," he emphasizes, reflecting on the limits of historical rhyme.
Liquidity — through the lens of the popular M2 money supply overlay — remains supportive, but is not decisive in his view. He acknowledges that "everyone" is watching M2 and currently it "says there is potential for a price increase during this phase." However, he emphasizes that this relationship is not eternal: in previous cycles, M2 continued to rise even as cryptocurrencies entered bear markets. The takeaway is pragmatic and not dogmatic: "We will use it until it is no longer effective," but it cannot, by itself, ensure a sustained price increase.
From this macro and liquidity foundation, he derives a clear gating function for Dogecoin's main objective. For a sustainable move towards the $1 price level, three conditions need to converge: Ethereum must surpass the 2021 high to confirm a new bull market; the "extended" halving cycle window - focusing on the rhythm of about 486 days post-halving - needs to pave the way for a final price surge; and global M2 expansion needs to maintain enough support to sustain risk appetite.
In Dogecoin's own record, he allows for meaningful volatility without changing the structure. "Can we have bullish swings up and down 30 cents? Certainly," he says, viewing such fluctuations as tradeable ranges within a larger consolidation rather than the starting point of a final bull run. What will turn that range into a trend is not a single candle or a single breakout, but the multi-asset correlation he reiterates throughout the update.
