Ripple's legal victory over the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has removed a major regulatory barrier, opening up hopes for widespread acceptance from financial institutions and even the possibility of launching an XRP spot ETF.
Strong Capital Inflow After Agreement
Immediately after the news was announced, the daily trading volume of XRP skyrocketed, increasing by 208% to $12.4 billion. Analysts even estimate a 95% chance that the XRP ETF will be approved before October 2025.
However, the initial excitement is showing signs of cooling down. In the 24 hours ending on August 12, the price of XRP fell by 4% from $3.19 to $3.13, although it had previously reached $3.32 during the session.
Notably, the strong selling volume of 73.87 million XRP at 19:00 indicates that large investors (whales) are taking profits. Currently, the short-term support is recorded at $3.12, while resistance remains strong at $3.27–$3.32.
Technical Signals Indicate a 45% Drop Risk
On the 2-week chart, technical analysts note a bearish divergence: the price is continuously making higher peaks, but the relative strength index (RSI) is making lower peaks.
This pattern previously appeared during the peak of 2017–2018, before XRP entered a prolonged bearish cycle.
If this scenario repeats, XRP could correct deeply to the 50-period EMA around $1.64, which is a decrease of about 45% from the current level. Before reaching this area, the price may receive temporary buying pressure in the $1.90–$2.00 range.
However, a strong correction does not mean the end of the long-term bull market. On the contrary, this could be a phase of high-leverage cleansing, market psychology rebuilding, and establishing a foundation for a more sustainable trend.
Bullish Scenario: Bulls Still Have a Chance to Turn the Tide
On the contrary, the bulls believe that XRP still has many opportunities. The price is currently approaching the resistance area of $3.55 – a level that previously halted the rally of 2018 – while also breaking out of a symmetrical triangle that has accumulated for many years.
If it surpasses $3.55 with overwhelming buying volume, XRP could pave the way towards $4.41, even $5.68, especially as:
The XRP spot ETF has been approved in the U.S.
Large investors are shifting from distribution to accumulation.
Moreover, Ripple's long-term strategy in payment infrastructure, CBDC collaboration, and real asset tokenization could reinforce the actual demand for XRP, even as short-term prices fluctuate wildly.
Conclusion: The Market is at a Decisive Moment
XRP is at a 'tipping point' between two scenarios:
Confirmation of the bearish pattern and entering a strong correction phase.
Breaking historical resistance to extend the rally following the legal victory.
In the context of an uncertain macroeconomic environment, selling pressure from whales and technical barriers remain factors that investors need to closely monitor.
Regardless of the direction, the upcoming volatility of XRP will be a significant test for both the strength of the Ripple community and the global cryptocurrency market sentiment.
