There is an organization called CME that created a 'Federal Reserve Watch', similar to how we usually check the weather forecast, specifically predicting the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and cuts. The probabilities they calculated are quite lively, almost like a fortune teller; let's take a look.

First, regarding September's situation: there is a 14.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will choose to hold steady, meaning interest rates will remain unchanged. However, there is a whopping 85.9% chance that they will cut rates, and if they do, it will be by 0.25 percentage points. This probability is nearing 90%, essentially akin to saying 'there's a high chance'.

Now looking at October, it gets even more interesting. The probability of holding steady is only 5.2%, which is similar to the odds of winning a small prize in a lottery, and can basically be ignored. There is a 39.9% chance of a 0.25% cut, and a 55.1% chance of a direct 0.5% cut. Together, this nears 95%, indicating that a rate cut is practically certain; it’s just a matter of how much.

In plain terms, the market currently feels that the Federal Reserve is about to start cutting rates. It's likely that there will be a small cut in September to test the waters, and they may continue to cut in October. This is similar to how ordinary people manage their finances: if money is tight, they spend less; if money is loose, they spend more. Right now, the Federal Reserve feels it’s time to loosen the money supply.

However, that being said, these numbers are just predictions; just like weather forecasts, it might rain, but it could also be sunny. For us regular folks, just getting a general idea is sufficient; knowing the current trend is that rates are expected to be cut is enough. If you really want to invest and manage finances, you still need to keep an eye on other sources of information, not just this.