Based on the comprehensive market dynamics and technical indicators analysis, XRP's trend in the coming week (August 12-18, 2025) will exhibit characteristics of both fluctuating upwards and high volatility, with the core trend and trading strategies as follows:
📈 Price range prediction
- Key support level:
- Short-term support: $3.10 - $3.20 (psychological defense line and 7-day moving average resonance), if it falls below, it may drop to $2.90 (Bollinger Band middle track).
- Strong support zone: $2.80 - $2.85 (50-day moving average and institutional cost zone), this position is the last line of defense for bulls.
- Key resistance level:
- Recent target: $3.50 (historical high pressure level), a breakout may accelerate the push towards $3.65 (historical peak).
- Breakout target: If it stabilizes above $3.65, it may trigger a short squeeze, targeting $4.00 - $4.50.
🔍 Core technical signals
1. Intensifying long-short competition:
- MVRV golden cross reappears: Historical data shows that after this signal appears (such as at the end of 2024 and July 2025), XRP achieved gains of 60%-600%. If volume supports it this week, it may replicate the upward trend.
- Symmetrical triangle breakout: A breakout at the weekly level from the upper edge of the symmetrical triangle that has persisted since 2018, with a theoretical target of 16.17, but in the short term, it is more likely to first test $3.50 - $4.00.
- Moving average system convergence: The 21-week EMA and 33-week SMA are about to cross; if a 'white circle' signal is formed (avoiding a death cross), it may trigger a 1200% level increase; if a 'red circle' (death cross) appears, caution is needed for flash crash risks.
2. Divergence in momentum indicators:
- RSI is neutral to bullish: Current RSI is 58.36, in the neutral range, no overbought pressure, ample upward space.
- MACD concerns: The weekly MACD has shown a bearish crossover signal; if not corrected this week, it may suppress the price increase.
🐳 Market sentiment and fund dynamics
- Whale accumulation and on-chain activity:
- The number of holding addresses has surpassed 6.6 million, with on-chain activity reaching a yearly high, and new demand continuing to enter.
- Large whales have recently executed single trades amounting to hundreds of millions of XRP, indicating a strong willingness from institutions to position themselves.
- Derivatives risk:
- High positions in futures open contracts, with shorts concentrated above $3.50, a breakout may trigger $100 million level liquidations, accelerating the rise.
⚡️ Key driving events
1. Progress of the Ripple vs SEC lawsuit:
- Expectations for the final ruling are heating up; if favorable (such as a settlement or clear non-security status), it may propel XRP to surge over 20% in a single day; conversely, it may trigger selling pressure.
2. XRP ETF updates:
- Strong inflows into Brazil's XRP ETF, if the US SEC provides approval signals this week, it will become a catalyst for breaking $3.50.
3. Ecological upgrades:
- Ripple's payment network has added new Asian partners, increasing the utility of XRP for cross-border settlements.
💎 Recommended trading strategy
- Breakout scenario (60% probability):
- If it stabilizes at $3.30 with increased volume, **buy on the rise** targeting $3.50 - $3.65, with a stop-loss at $3.10.
- Add positions after breaking $3.65, targeting $4.00 - $4.50.
- Pullback scenario (40% probability):
- If it falls below $3.10, **wait and see** until it stabilizes at the $2.90 - $2.85 support area before building positions in batches, aiming for a rebound.
- Position management:
- Leverage ratio ≤ 3 times, avoid heavy operations before and after the announcement of litigation news.
⚠️ Risk warning
1. Regulatory black swan: If the SEC suddenly issues a negative ruling, it could cause prices to crash below $2.50.
2. Exchange selling pressure: Recently, $70 million worth of XRP flowed into Coinbase, be cautious of large holders cashing out, which may trigger local corrections.
3. Technical failure: If the 'red circle' signal is confirmed (21-week EMA death cross 33-week SMA), decisive stop-loss measures are necessary.
💎 Summary
In the coming week, XRP is likely to fluctuate between $3.10 and $3.65, with a breakthrough of $3.50 being a key signal to initiate an accelerated market. The technical aspects are supported by the MVRV golden cross and symmetrical triangle breakout, but caution is needed for MACD death cross and regulatory risks. It is recommended to focus on event-driven strategies, closely monitoring the SEC lawsuit and ETF developments, and strictly setting stop-loss levels. Accumulating positions for medium to long-term can be considered when the price retraces to support levels.