The media is already shouting: Bitcoin is hitting records! The king of the market is back! BTC above $120,000! However, let's skip the catchy headlines and consider which way the price of Bitcoin will go in the next few months.

💰 Where are we?

Let's start with where things are happening in mid-August 2025. In mid-July, BTC established an ATH of $123,000 and some change. On-chain data shows high liquidity and increasing hashrate.

Why now? We can only speculate. It is likely partially due to the record influx of capital into Bitcoin ETFs. 3 billion dollars in a few weeks! Institutions seem to envy MicroStrategy's profitability.

Looking fundamentally, the war with Iran has been averted and we have a moment of political calm. More technically, the breakout above $110-112 thousand opened the way for BTC upwards. Bla, bla, bla, bla...

Okay, enough. The most important question is simply: what next? Will the rise continue, or conversely, are these the last spasms of an ending cycle? Historical analogies may help us.

📅 Lessons from the previous bull market

In every previous cycle, Bitcoin reached ATH in the final phase of the bull market, after which it almost immediately entered a phase of declines.

  • in the cycle 2011–2013: ATH ~1150 USD (December 2013), drop of ~40% within a month

  • in the cycle 2015–2017: ATH ~19,500 USD (December 2017), drop of ~35% within a month

  • in the cycle 2019–2021: ~69,000 USD (November 2021), drop of ~30% within a month

Such statistics look beautiful, but they have a fundamental flaw - we do not know if today's ATH is already the final and correct one.

As a consolation: nobody knows this. 😅 If anyone is 100% convinced that the bull market will last another year, or conversely, that the declines will happen next week - you can safely ignore their opinion.

🚨 🚨 🚨 ATTENTION - it is worth noting that ATHs occur roughly every 4 years. If the trend holds, the current one can be expected in October-November 2025.

🔍 Indicators are an investor's friend

Much more sensible than reading tea leaves will be looking at hard data. Just remember that they do not always tell the whole truth either.

🌈 1. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart v2

Shows where Bitcoin stands against its historical backdrop. Currently suggests that we are in the HODL phase. It does not provide a target price in the cycle, but we can cautiously estimate it at around $200,000.

📊 2. MVRV Z

Allows for the identification of extreme overvaluation or undervaluation of BTC price. Checking whether we should buy is relatively easy, determining the moment to sell is significantly more difficult. The current reading does not yet indicate overheating.

📈 3. MACD

A technical indicator based on moving averages, indicating the long-term trend in the market. Both the daily and weekly readings are positive, which is very good news.

⚡4. RSI

Relative Strength Index. Unlike MACD, it enters the risk zone both on a daily and weekly scale, indicating the possibility of a correction.

📋 5. Analysis of the past

This is not an indicator, but an attempt to understand today's situation based on data from previous cycles. According to them, we should expect the end of the bull market around October 2025, and the ATH should occur at around $140,000. Perhaps $20,000 more in a very short spike.

❓ Not everything can be measured

The year 2020 showed how valuable such attempts to predict the future are. The media panic related to the Covid-19 virus caused a 30% drop in BTC value in one day. No model accounted for such an event.

A similar situation may repeat itself today. A new pandemic, the return of war in the Middle East, the collapse of a major bank, a sharp drop in Tesla stock... On the other hand, panic buying driven by FOMO is also possible in the face of still rising BTC prices.

For this reason, treat our calculations more as an intellectual exercise rather than a binding market forecast.

🎯 Final verdict: how much will Bitcoin be?

The above disclaimers are very important. However, few will likely read them while searching for an answer to one simple question - how much will BTC be???

Considering all indicators, we will probably reach an ATH of $140,000 to $160,000, and the bull market will last until autumn 2025. Along the way, there will be at least one significant correction that will give many a heart attack.

However, this is pure speculation. If you do not own Bitcoin by now, I strongly advise against buying it now. The risk is simply too high. It's better to wait until the beginning of a bear market and think about a short position if you understand what that entails.