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【通胀回温!美联储降息梦要凉?】 美国 7 月 CPI & 核心 CPI 解读 + 市场策略参考 📊 最新数据 核心 CPI(年率):3.1%(预期 3.0%,前值 3.0%)→ 5 个月高位 整体 CPI(年率):2.7%(预期 2.8%,前值 2.7%) 1️⃣ 关键信号 核心 CPI 回升,意味着服务、住房等“粘性通胀”仍在升温,物价降温之路并不平坦。 整体 CPI 稳定在 2.x%,主要是能源、食品价格下行在“遮掩”核心通胀压力。 背离现象 → 总体看似温和,但核心上涨,正是美联储最担心的局面。 2️⃣ 对市场的影响 降息预期降温 → 核心通胀高于预期,美联储可能延后降息,甚至释放“更久高利率”信号。 美元、美债收益率可能短线走强 → 压制风险资产估值。 加密市场短线承压 → BTC、ETH 等可能先跟随避险情绪回落,随后需看资金是否在调整后回流。 3️⃣ 短线交易参考 美元指数(DXY):关注 104.5 阻力,若突破或进一步压制风险资产。 BTC/ETH:短线支撑关注 BTC $57,800 / ETH $2,840;若失守需防加速下探。 黄金:高利率预期回温下,黄金可能遇阻 2,420 美元/盎司。 4️⃣ 风控提示 CPI 数据发布后波动加大,短线杠杆需谨慎。 关注 FOMC 会议纪要 与 鲍威尔讲话,这会直接影响市场情绪。 数据虽不爆炸,但信号微妙 → “假安全”行情可能被快速反转”。
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