The market consensus has sounded the alarm: core inflation year-on-year may breach the 3% mark, reaching a five-month high; overall inflation year-on-year is at 2.8%, rising for the third consecutive month! If the data holds true, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September will plummet sharply from 91%, and Bitcoin's recently set $122,000 record may instantly become a battleground for bulls and bears.
More dangerous signals are hidden in the details —
Tariff inflation has drawn blood! Morgan Stanley issues an urgent warning: Trump’s tariffs are violently pushing up prices of toys, sports goods, and furniture. After corporate inventories are cleared, July CPI may witness a cost transfer 'tsunami'.
Gold plunged 2% in a single day! The $3,400 defense line collapsed overnight, hedge funds are frantically selling off safe-haven assets — this is not a technical adjustment, but a gambler's naked fear of the 'stagflation ghost'.
The Federal Reserve is caught in an ultimate paradox: on one hand, the job market is cooling sharply (July employment population ratio has dropped to a three-year low), on the other hand, inflation is roaring back. If tonight's data exceeds expectations, Powell will be forced to choose between 'recession' and 'inflation', and the global liquidity gates may urgently close!
This is a judgment more lethal than non-farm payrolls, whispers are circulating on Wall Street: when Bitcoin at $122,000 and gold at $3,360 go their separate ways, capital has already sensed it — tonight's CPI will either ignite the bull market engine or trigger the bomb fuse!
Institutions are swallowing hundreds of billions in chips, the 'doomsday machine' behind the violent surge of BTC and ETH has been activated!
Bitcoin surged 3.2% in a single day, breaking through $122,000 (just 1% away from its historical high!), Ethereum skyrocketed 21% in 7 days, reaching $4,300, marking a three-year high! This wave of madness is certainly not just retail euphoria — institutional giants are plotting in the shadows.
$113 billion in BTC and $13 billion in ETH have been locked by listed asset management companies, with the weekly accumulation equivalent to the GDP of a small country!
The Trump family's 'crypto empire' is coming to light: Eric Trump is publicly supporting Ethereum, and his company World Liberty Financial (WLFI) is plotting to tokenize a publicly listed company, political capital has become the new fuel!
Tomorrow night’s CPI: the 'judgment moment' for bulls!
All eyes are focused on the U.S. July CPI data at 20:30 Beijing time on August 12! If inflation cools (with a core CPI annual rate expectation of 3%), the probability of a rate cut in September will soar to 91.5% (CME FedWatch data) at that time.
BTC may lightning strike past the historical peak of $123,000, triggering an $1.8 billion short massacre (the short squeeze powder keg has already been planted!)
ETH call options are being heavily bet at $6,000! Data from Deribit exchange shows a 300% surge in trading volume for December $6,000 call contracts, Wall Street consensus: ETH will replicate the 'frenzied bull market' of 2021!
Major tremor warning: hedge funds are frantically buying 'doomsday insurance'!
Despite the explosive upward momentum, smart money has quietly positioned for a downward hedge:
ETH's short-term implied volatility has soared to 70% (BTC only 35%), panic buying signals suggest a potential 10% flash crash after CPI!
The technicals reveal a 'death signal': BTC has tested the $122K level three times and retreated, ETH has accumulated $1 billion in sell orders in the $4,300-$4,350 range, warning: the trap for long positions has been set, and a counterattack is imminent!
Ultimate script:
On Friday, Trump held a secret meeting with Putin in Alaska. If a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine is reached, global risk assets will gain nuclear-level momentum! Coupled with Fed Vice Chair Bowman’s 'hawkish' support for a rate cut in September, hundreds of billions in pension funds (401k) may storm into the crypto market — $120 billion in 'bullets' ready to sweep up BTC!
Xiao Wan's bold statement: If CPI is below 3%, go long with closed eyes! $122K is not the top; it's the new starting point for the bull market! But if the data blows up — the $119K support level will become a graveyard for bulls and bears, blood will flow like rivers! Watch Xiao Wan’s 100x sniper strategy tonight! #BTC重返12万 #加密总市值创历史新高