Ethereum Plummets: The 'Black Swan' Arrives in the Crypto Market, Are You Ready to Respond?
4-Hour Chart RSI Exceeds 70 for Three Consecutive Days, Reaching 84.36. Daily MACD Shows Divergence, Price Hits New High with Diminishing Momentum, Indicating a Reversal Signal. Historically, the 24-Hour Average Pullback is 8.2%, and this is a technical correction. ETH is Unstable at $4300, Triggering Sell Orders and Breaking Support, Leading to Long Position Liquidations.
On-Chain, There are Over $78 Million in Sell Orders at $4340 - $4360, with Major Players Inducing Buying and Then Dumping. During the Plummet, ETH Futures Saw $203 Million in Liquidations Over 24 Hours, Primarily Long Positions, as Leverage Bubble Burst Accelerated the Decline.
The Probability of a September Rate Cut by the Federal Reserve has Dropped to 85%. Traders Worry About Inflation Delaying Easing, and High Interest Rates Suppress Risk Assets. If the U.S. PPI Exceeds Expectations, Funds Will Withdraw from the Crypto Market.
The Dencun Upgrade Has Reduced Layer 2 Costs by 98%, Lowering Mainnet Transaction Fees and ETH Burn Rate, Weakening the 'Ultra-Sound Money' Narrative. Nearly 300,000 ETH from Public Company SBET Will Unlock in September, and Whale Transfers and Sell-offs are Undermining Confidence.
This Plummet is a Clearing of Liquidity Bubble, with an Implied Emotional Premium of 18% at $4168, and Real Value Estimated Around $3400 - $3600. Major Players are Offloading Based on Sentiment, with Technical and Macro Factors Resonating in the Decline, but Benefits Long-term Growth and Risk Reduction.
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