I determine whether a wave of upward movement has ended, usually by observing open interest (OI).

Today, both long and short positions increased significantly, coinciding with the breakthrough of the key price level of $120,000.

For me, the key is to identify the starting point — which is the price level where open interest rapidly increases.

If the price retreats and falls below this starting point, and there is no significant reduction in open interest, it indicates that the longs who entered here are trapped.

This often signals that this upward wave may have reached its end.

In simple terms: the starting point corresponds to the psychological cost line for the longs. If the price breaks below it without a decrease in open interest, it indicates that the longs are having difficulty withdrawing, making it easy for the market to reverse and decline.

This method of combining price and open interest is one of the important bases for my judgment on market turning points.