I. Core Drivers of the Current Adjustment
Technical Pressure
Key Resistance Failure: XRP repeatedly failed to break through the $3.33–$3.50 resistance zone, forming a short-term top structure and triggering profit-taking selling.46
TD Sequential Sell Signal: This signal appeared on the three-day chart (with high historical accuracy), indicating further downside risk.1
Decreasing Volume: Insufficient volume during the recent rebound failed to support an effective breakout, suggesting weakness in bullish momentum.810
On-Chain Capital Fluctuations
Increased Whale Selling Pressure: In early August, whale addresses cumulatively sold over 720 million XRP (worth approximately $2.2 billion), concentrated in the $3.10–$3.20 range, exacerbating downward pressure.15
MVRV Indicator Weakness: The market value/realized value ratio has experienced a 'death cross,' with short-term holders incurring losses, potentially triggering a stampede-like sell-off.1
II. Key Price Levels for Bull and Bear Struggle
Support and Resistance Analysis
Key Level Price Range Importance
Strong Support Zone $2.88–$2.92 Fibonacci 50% retracement level + a dense buying area verified multiple times in August. A breakdown will accelerate the fall to $2.6528
Psychological Support $3.00 100-hour moving average + psychological defense line for retail investors. A breach confirms bearish dominance.10
Bull-Bear Watershed $3.20–$3.25 Recent local high points. A breakout is necessary to reverse the short-term decline.68
Trend Reversal Signal $3.33–$3.50 Previous high resistance + institutional selling pressure zone. Stabilizing above this level could initiate a new rally.46
Comparison of Bull and Bear Momentum
Bullish Chips:
The long-term benefits remain after the SEC lawsuit concluded. ETF expectations (90% probability of approval) may attract institutions to buy on dips.57
Bearish Chips:
The short-term technical outlook is bearish. If $3.00 is breached, stop-loss orders will trigger a cascade of declines, targeting $2.75910
Summary: Focus on Two Major Turning Points
Short-Term Life-or-Death Line:
$3.00 - Holding it will maintain a range-bound fluctuation, while a breach will trigger panic selling to $2.75.
Trend Engine:
$3.33 - A breakout with volume will activate the bullish logic of the MVRV golden cross (historical gains of 54% ~ 630%).46
The current market is in a 'news vacuum,' and caution is warranted against associated declines triggered by hawkish signals released at the Jackson Hole Central Banker Symposium on August 21st. Patiently waiting for direction confirmation and avoiding heavy left-side positioning are crucial for survival.
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