Bitcoin suddenly surged to 120,000 USD last night, climbing 3.8% in 24 hours to the previous high of 122,000 USD, but the 4-hour K-line suddenly closed bearish, with trading volume soaring 18%—this "high-volume bearish line" is not coincidental, hiding the ultimate game between institutions and retail. Will it break 130,000 tonight? Three dimensions of professional signals must be understood:
One, funding aspect: Institutions are "openly adding positions", but leveraged funds are "secretly laying bombs"
1. The "liquidity dividend" of the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations
JPMorgan's latest report indicates that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has reached 89%. If the unemployment rate breaks 4.4%, it may trigger a 50 basis point "violent rate cut". Looking back at history: during the 2020 rate cut cycle, BTC rose from 3,800 USD to 64,000 USD (a 16-fold increase), the core logic is that "in a low-interest-rate environment, funds flow from dollar assets to inflation-resistant targets". Currently, BTC has a negative correlation of -0.81 with the USD index (data from the past 3 months), after the rate cut is implemented, it is expected that 1.5-2 billion USD of incremental funds will flow into the crypto market monthly.
2. The "crushing advantage" of institutional holdings
BlackRock's BTC ETF attracted 1.2 billion USD in one week, with holdings exceeding 450,000 coins (accounting for 2.1% of circulating supply), this type of capital belongs to "long-term allocation", and will not exit due to short-term fluctuations;
The corporate holding camp is expanding: Metaplanet holds more than Tesla (15,000 coins), the total BTC holdings of listed companies reached 1.1 million coins, an increase of 37% compared to the beginning of the year — corporate asset allocation needs form a "price floor".
3. The "time bomb" of leveraged funds
Danger signals hidden in stablecoin data: Tether issued 4 billion USDT in one week, with 62% flowing into the futures market, causing the funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts to rise to 0.18% (longs have to pay fees to shorts), and open interest exceeded 15 billion USD. This means: highly leveraged longs are overcrowded, and if the price pulls back to 114,000 USD, it will trigger about 800 million USD in liquidations, potentially causing a chain reaction.
Two, technical aspects: Daily strong trend and 4-hour pullback pressure's "contradiction point"
1. Daily-level "bullish framework" has not broken
MACD golden cross continues to expand, with the height of red bars reaching a nearly 3-month peak, indicating that the medium to long-term trend is still upward;
The upper Bollinger Band continues to open, with prices running along the upper band (a typical strong characteristic), and the support level has moved up from 110,000 to 115,000 — this is a sign of institutions "buying while rising" (there is always capital taking over during each pullback).
2. 4-hour level "short-term pressure signal"
KDJ death cross forms, J value drops from 100 to 72, short-term bullish momentum weakens;
MA10 moving average begins to flatten, forming pressure with MA30 for an "upcoming death cross"; if it cannot recover to 120,000 USD tonight, it may test the support at 118,000 USD (this is the cost area for institutions' recent accumulation).
3. The "shadow war of funds" at key price levels
Resistance level at 128,000 USD: 3.7 billion in call options are concentrated (exercise price concentration area), breaking through requires volume to exceed 15 billion USD in 24 hours (current daily average 12 billion);
Support level at 115,000 USD: corresponding to the average holding cost of institutional ETFs (114,000-116,000), breaking below may trigger programmed trading stop-loss selling.
Three, sentiment: "Heat and funds divergence" warning
Google's "Bitcoin" search popularity is only 45 (out of 100), far lower than the peak of the 2021 bull market (98), indicating that retail investors have not entered the market on a large scale, and the market is still dominated by institutions;
Miner selling pressure has dropped to an 18-month low: Canaan Creative's miner gross margin has plummeted by 29%, forcing miners to reduce selling (daily selling pressure decreased from 3,000 coins to 1,800 coins), providing "implicit support" for the price;
BTC is negatively correlated with the US stock VIX index, reaching -0.73: when US stocks panic, BTC's safe-haven attributes are highlighted, attracting traditional funds to "cross-market hedge".
Retail practical strategies (divided by risk preference)
Radical faction (can withstand 10% volatility)
Entry point: After stabilizing above 122,000 USD, lightly take long positions (use limit orders to avoid chasing high slippage), set stop loss at 118,000 (break below the 4-hour MA30);
Target: First take profit at 128,000 USD (options concentrated area), second target at 132,000 USD (Fibonacci 1.618 extension), keep position control within 3%.
Conservative faction (averse to high volatility)
Wait for a pullback: Accumulate positions in the range of 115,000-118,000 (corresponding to institutional cost area + daily support), with a single purchase not exceeding 20% of total assets;
Allocation logic: 60% spot + 40% stablecoin, if it drops below 115,000 and trading volume increases, pause buying (possible trend reversal).
Absolute red line
Spot holdings not exceeding 50%, leverage ratio ≤ 3 times (in the current high volatility environment, high leverage = risking life);
If the price drops below 125,000 tonight but the trading volume shrinks, immediately reduce position by 30% (false breakout probability 80%).
The game of Bitcoin tonight is essentially a duel between "institutional fund resilience" and "leveraged fund fragility". Retail investors do not need to guess the top; by understanding the two points of 115,000 (institutional bottom line) and 128,000 (the lifeline for longs and shorts), they can avoid 80% of the pitfalls. Leave your positions in the comments, and I will help you set stop-loss lines~
#BTC重返12万 #ETH突破4300 #币安Alpha上新 #以太坊生态回暖 #加密总市值创历史新高
Continuously pay attention to CFX ENA ETH SOL XRP
