The traditional 4-year Bitcoin halving cycle is gradually losing its dominant influence on price and the market.
Currently, macro factors and demand from financial institutions play a more important role, changing how Bitcoin price reacts across cycles.
MAIN CONTENT
The traditional 4-year halving cycle of Bitcoin may have ended as almost all Bitcoin has been mined.
The current market dynamics of Bitcoin are strongly influenced by financial institutions and macroeconomic trends.
Although the halving mechanism no longer dominates, seasonal price trends still exist with more stable long-term growth.
Is the 4-year halving cycle still relevant to Bitcoin today?
Bitcoin expert Pierre Rochard suggests that the classic halving cycle likely no longer has a significant impact as 95% of Bitcoin has been mined.
He emphasizes that the actual supply on the market now comes from initial investors selling off, rather than from halving. This makes the halving mechanism no longer significantly affect the circulating amount of Bitcoin. Current sources of demand include retail investors, ETF funds on asset platforms, and companies holding Bitcoin.
"It seems more likely than not that the 4 year cycles are over. Halvings are immaterial to trading float, 95% of the BTC have been mined, supply comes from buying out OGs, demand is the sum of spot retail, ETPs getting added to wealth platforms, and treasury companies."
Pierre Rochard, Bitcoin Expert, 11/8/2025 (Twitter)
Similarly, author Jason Williams points out that the top 100 companies holding Bitcoin treasury currently own nearly 1 million BTC. He believes this is the reason the 4-year halving cycle no longer plays a decisive role.
Why do large organizational forces and economic trends control the market?
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, explains that the influence of halving is diminishing due to many factors of steady growth: low interest rates, clearer regulations, and increased acceptance of Bitcoin from institutions.
He assesses that 2026 is not a super-cycle boom period but a time of sustainable growth, based on more stable financial and macroeconomic foundations.
"I think it’s more ‘sustained steady boom’ than super-cycle."
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, 2025
The old halving cycle, which used to create significant volatility, is now replaced by organizational factors that bring more stability to the market.
What are the contrasting views on the impact of ETFs on the Bitcoin cycle?
In addition to the analysis that the halving cycle is fading, analyst CRYPTO₿IRB argues that the increase in cryptocurrency ETFs actually reinforces the cycle by linking crypto demand with long-established financial models.
He argues that establishing ETFs allows the cryptocurrency market to operate in multi-year cycles similar to traditional financial assets, thus maintaining a regular cyclical model.
What does the current Bitcoin price trend reflect about the halving cycle?
Expert and YouTuber Benjamin Cowen observes that Bitcoin still shows typical seasonal price patterns: increasing in July and August, a slight decrease in September, then rising again in Q4 before entering a bear market phase.
This proves that although the fundamental mechanism of the halving cycle is changing, seasonal characteristics continue to strongly influence price behavior.
"If you look carefully, you’ll see Bitcoin prints the same pattern each post-halving year: Up in July-Aug, down in Sep, up into the market cycle top in Q4, then bear market."
Benjamin Cowen, Cryptocurrency Expert, 11/8/2025 (Twitter)
Identifying these seasonal trends helps investors have better guidance in long-term strategies.
What advice is there for investors in the context of a weakening halving cycle?
The halving cycle is no longer the only factor influencing the Bitcoin market; this requires investors to pay more attention to fundamental factors such as ETF cash flows, the regulatory framework, and global economic trends.
Long-term investment should focus on assessing macro factors and stable growth momentum from the institutional community to optimize benefits.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the 4-year halving cycle of Bitcoin?
The halving cycle reduces the Bitcoin mining reward roughly every 4 years, affecting new supply and the value of Bitcoin.
Why is the halving cycle considered to be ending?
Because 95% of Bitcoin has been mined, supply growth mainly comes from sales by old investors rather than from halving, diminishing the traditional impact of this cycle.
What factors are currently influencing Bitcoin prices instead of halving?
The current drivers are the growth of institutional investors, ETF capital flows, clear regulations, and macroeconomic interest rate trends.
Does the Bitcoin price trend after halving still exist?
Seasonal characteristics such as summer price increases and Q4 remain maintained, although the impact mechanism has changed.
What should investors focus on at this time?
Prioritize assessing macroeconomic factors, regulations, institutional cash flows, and continue monitoring the performance of cryptocurrency ETF products.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-4-nam-con-gia-tri-canh-bao/
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