Bitcoin

1) Current structure

・On July 25, the consolidation range below 116,000 was broken, dropping down to 114,000, and a short-term downward channel has formed.

・The 120,000 position is crucial; it must break through and stabilize in the short term, otherwise it will likely continue to swing down. Once it breaks through, Bitcoin will pull up again, targeting 130,000.

・117,000 is where everyone concentrated their purchases in the past two weeks. To maintain strength, this level must not break.

・114,000 is the bottom of the channel; there aren't many chips supporting below, and if it breaks, it will quickly drop to 110,000.

・110,000 is both a psychological barrier and the place that held up from April to June. If it breaks below, it won't come back quickly, and the mid-term bull market will need to be reassessed.

2) On-chain data

・Long and short positions: There are fewer long positions held for a long time, more short-term ones, but it hasn't reached an extremely extreme situation yet.

・Long-term holding profits: In this wave of increase, those who held long-term haven't made much profit, and there is still a considerable distance from previous highs.

3) Contract data

Contract trading volume is 7 times that of spot, having a huge impact on the market.

・Funding rate: The rate for longs is rising, but it hasn't reached a point where leverage is added aggressively yet.

・Long-short ratio: The indicator I'm watching shows that the long-short ratio can reflect market sentiment. In the past, when this ratio dropped significantly, it often indicated a short-term bottom. In the last couple of days of decline, this ratio hasn't reached extremes yet.

・Liquidation zone: Short positions are mainly liquidated at 120,000 and 122,000. Long positions are concentrated at 117,000, 114,000, and below 110,000. When reaching these levels, the chain reaction of leveraged liquidations will lead to greater volatility.

4) Macro data

・US M2 pushed forward 10 weeks: It has been rising continuously and is quite correlated with Bitcoin's movement.

・Junk bond and treasury yield spread: Excluding the impact of April tariffs, the yield spread is getting smaller, there is a lot of money, and people are willing to take risks.

5) How will Bitcoin move?

・Good scenario: Pull back to 117,000 and stabilize, then break through 120,000.

・Medium scenario: Dropping below 117,000, testing 114,000, adding positions here is good.

・Bad scenario: Dropping below 114,000, piercing down to 110,000, such opportunities are rare.

As long as there are no particularly bad events, even if there is a pullback, it will only be a short-term washout. The target before September is still 130,000 to 150,000.

Ethereum

If Bitcoin pulls back, Ethereum will also drop, and its share will decrease.

・Although Ethereum has been stronger than Bitcoin recently, a pullback is definitely coming. In previous bull markets, it was common for Ethereum to drop 10-30% compared to Bitcoin.

・If it really drops, 3,000 to 3,500 USD is the main support.

・The mid-term trend hasn't changed; it is expected to break previous highs in August-September, with the mid-term top looking at 5,000 to 6,500 USD.

Altcoins

・Although the small altcoin season has started, a drop of 10-20% is very normal; it is also common for small coins to be halved in a bull market.

・Altcoins outside the top ten have lagged far behind Ethereum in this wave.

・It is still highly likely that it won't outperform Ethereum, but the altcoins will gain momentum in August-September, with total market value possibly increasing by 2-3 times.

・In the early phase of altcoin season, the leading coins rise first, and smaller coins are slower, but as long as there is attention and teams are active, funds will eventually rotate.

For most people, holding on is more useful than guessing accurately; don't get shaken out by short-term volatility.

#BTC重返12万 #ETH突破4300 #币安Alpha上新