This week is forecasted to be a critical time for the cryptocurrency market, as a series of key macro data from the U.S. and oil supply reports are released. This information could determine whether Bitcoin breaks out of its current accumulation phase towards a new peak, as well as maintain the upward momentum of the entire altcoin market.
1. Inflation Data – The Focus of the Week
U.S. CPI for July will be announced on Tuesday, August 12, at 14:30 CEST (08:30 ET).
Forecast from Bloomberg:
Core CPI (excluding energy & food): +0.3% m/m.
Headline CPI: +0.2% m/m, corresponding to +2.8% y/y (slight increase from 2.7% in June).
Forecast from Cleveland Fed: Headline ~2.7% y/y, Core ~3.0% y/y.
If Core CPI is at 0.3% m/m, this indicates core inflation remains around 3% y/y — sufficiently "persistent" for the Fed to consider keeping rates high longer, unless fluctuations in energy prices or tariffs alter the scenario.
PPI for July (Producer Price Index) will be released on Thursday, August 14, at 14:30 CEST.
Forecast: +0.2% m/m after 0% in June.
PPI combined with CPI will show price pressure from the production side; if PPI is unexpectedly high, the market may worry that cost pressures will spread to consumer prices.
2. Consumption and Market Sentiment
Retail sales for July: will be announced on Friday, August 15, at 14:30 CEST.
Forecast: +0.5% m/m, with the "control group" closely monitored to assess purchasing power.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: announced the same day at 16:00 CEST.
July rose to the 60-point range; any further improvement could reinforce expectations of strong consumption.
Noteworthy scenario:
If retail sales are strong + core CPI 0.3%, the Fed may raise the tone of "high rates for longer."
Conversely, weaker-than-expected data will pave the way for the market to anticipate loosening policy.
3. Energy – The "Wild Card"
OPEC's monthly oil market report: announced on August 12.
Last month maintained the forecast for oil demand growth in 2025 at ~1.3 million barrels/day.
IEA's oil market report: announced on August 13.
Oil supply & demand will directly affect gasoline prices and thus impact headline CPI. If OPEC+ signals a tightening of supply or the IEA raises demand forecasts, inflation may face additional pressure.
4. Cash Flow and Internal Events of the Crypto Market
FTX: Identified August 15 as the cutoff date for the new payout round (expected to begin disbursement around September 30, 2025).
The payout value this time comes from a reduction of 1.9 billion USD in the dispute reserve fund, leaving 4.3 billion USD.
Funds will be sent via BitGo, Kraken, and Payoneer for eligible accounts.
Ethereum:
SharpLink Gaming (Nasdaq: SBET) will hold its Q2 earnings announcement on August 15, at 14:30 CEST.
The company holds 521,939 ETH (as of August 3) and is continuing to raise funds to increase its ETH reserves.
Changes in purchasing speed, staking strategies, or capital structure may impact the narrative of "ETH as a corporate reserve asset."
5. Technical Perspective
Bitcoin is currently just a short distance from the July peak (123,153 USD).
Expert Aksel Kibar, CMT: "This is a standard pullback model at the neckline area. If it exceeds 123,200 USD, the uptrend may continue strongly."
In Summary
This week is a significant test for the cryptocurrency market:
Inflation, consumption data → determine monetary policy expectations.
Oil supply → directly affects headline CPI.
Internal cash flow (FTX, Ethereum) → may create additional demand.
If economic and energy data "supports" the market, Bitcoin has a real chance to break its historical peak, leading to a strong price surge in altcoins.
