Key Takeaways
BTC hit $122,312 before retracing, with traders eyeing a $117K–$119K CME futures gap as a potential short-term pullback target.
Leverage-to-spot ratio at multi-year lows signals rally is being driven by spot demand, not excessive leverage.
U.S. CPI and PPI data this week will shape Fed rate cut odds for September, currently near 90%.
Whales show no major signs of profit-taking, while Coinbase Premium Index turning negative raises short-term caution.
BTC Starts the Week Near All-Time Highs
Bitcoin opened the new week with a surge to $122,312, its highest since the current bull leg began, before easing back to around $121,250. The move liquidated over $100 million in shorts and pushed BTC closer to all-time highs, though analysts warn of potential consolidation.
Traders are closely watching a weekend CME gap between $117,000 and $119,000 — a range where Bitcoin futures stopped trading Friday and reopened higher Monday. Historically, such gaps are often “filled” as spot prices revisit the range within days. A full gap fill would align with the key $117,200 support/resistance flip zone, described by analyst Rekt Capital as decisive for BTC’s broader trend.
Spot Demand Dominates as Leverage Stays Low
Despite the sharp move, futures-to-spot ratios are near their lowest since the 2022 bear market bottom, according to trader BitBull. This suggests the rally is spot demand–driven, reducing the risk of a leverage wipeout.
“That’s a rare signal,” BitBull said, adding that spot buying tends to hold through volatility, potentially supporting further upside once macro catalysts play out.
Macro Focus: CPI and PPI in Spotlight
This week brings U.S. CPI (Tuesday) and PPI (Friday) — data releases likely to influence the Federal Reserve’s September policy decision. Economists expect core CPI to rise 0.3% month-over-month in July, up from 0.2% in June, as tariffs push prices higher.
Markets currently price a 90% probability of a September rate cut, up from 57% a month ago, according to CME FedWatch data. A cooler-than-expected CPI print could lock in those expectations and boost risk assets, while a hotter print might trigger short-term selling in BTC.
On-Chain Signals: Whales Stay Put
CryptoQuant data shows that large $10M+ USDT transfers — often a signal of profit-taking — are absent. In July, similar spikes preceded BTC pullbacks of 3.8%–4.5%, but current readings suggest whales are not cashing out into stablecoins.
If Bitcoin holds above $120K, bulls may push for new highs before month-end. A dip toward $117K–$119K to fill the CME gap could reset market structure before another leg up, especially if macro data supports risk appetite, according to Coinetelgraph.
