💰 I. Large Capital Seeking Stability (1 million+): Core allocation BTC+ETH, hedge against volatility.

  1. Bitcoin (BTC) - Institution-supported 'Digital Gold'.

    • Target Basis: The fourth halving effect entering peak period (500-550 days post-halving), coupled with average daily net inflows to ETFs exceeding $500 million, ARK Invest and other institutions bullish to $200,000 (2026) 48.

    • Position Suggestion: Account for 50%-60% of total investment, use a dollar-cost averaging strategy to mitigate short-term pullback risk (e.g., $118,000 overbought zone may pull back 30% 8).

  2. Ethereum (ETH) - Steady growth driven by ecosystem expansion.

    • Technical Breakthrough: Weekly close above $4,000 (key resistance turns support), AI model predicts 2026 target range of $10,000-$15,000, with a probability of 18%-40% 610.

    • Catalysts: Anticipation of ETF staking approval, DeFi TVL accounts for over 70% of the entire market, institutional funds inflow of $17 billion in 60 days 610.

    • Position Suggestion: Account for 30%-40%, hold long-term until the end of 2026.

✅ Key for Large Capital Operations: Avoid leverage, use spot ETFs (e.g., IBIT) to reduce custody risk, reserve 10% cash for black swan events.

🚀 II. Medium Capital Doubling (100,000-1 million): Focus on high-growth sectors, diversify bets on leaders.

  1. Public Chain Track: SOL as the preferred breakthrough.

    • Technical Signal: SOL weekly bottom formation complete, OBV (On-Balance Volume) breaks previous high, if it breaks through $183-$200 resistance, target for 2025 looks at $260-$300 37.

    • Alternative Options: SUI (expected to break $10 4), Hype (community-driven public chain).

  2. Emerging Narrative Track: AI + DeFi fusion projects.

    • Screening Logic:

      • Growth Indicators: TVL 30-day growth >50% (e.g., Ethena TVL growth drove ENA's monthly rise of 154% 15).

      • Token Economics: Circulation rate >30%, avoid unlocking sell pressure (reference TIA's 90% plunge due to unlocking 9).

    • Reference Targets:

      • AI Sector: Virtual (leader in AI narrative), Fetch.ai (decentralized machine learning).

      • DeFi Sector: Morpho (lending optimization protocol), ENA (stablecoin yield innovation).

  3. Position Management:

    • Single Project Position ≤ 15%, total holdings of 3-5 projects.

    • Set dynamic profit-taking (e.g., withdraw principal after 50% profit).

⚠️ Risk Warning: Avoid excessively chasing coins that have doubled (e.g., RSI > 70 overbought zone), pay attention to whether protocol revenue supports valuation.

🎯 III. Small Capital to Get Rich (under 100,000): Target hotspots and memes, extreme mobility.

  1. Strategy 1: Ambush early narratives.

    • Current Hotspots:

      • RWA (Real World Asset Tokenization): Driven by the GENIUS Act 6.

      • DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure): A giant may launch the project in 2025 4.

    • Approach: Select new projects with TVL weekly growth >20% through DeFiLlama, enter within 3 days of listing.

  2. Strategy 2: Meme Coin Hedge Portfolio.

    • Success Factors:

      • Community Activity (e.g., PENGU airdrop led to a surge in community interaction 5).

      • Celebrity Endorsement (some artist's token expectations 4).

    • Position Rules:

      • Single Project ≤ 5%, Total Meme Position ≤ 20%.

      • Stop Loss Line: -30% unconditional exit.

🔥 Small Capital Discipline:

Reject vague concepts like 'GameFi + AI + Metaverse', check whether the contract is open-source and the team's background.

Withdraw 90% of funds to reinvest in BTC/ETH during the second half of the bull market (BTC breaks $150,000).

⏰ IV. Current Stage Operation Guidelines (August 2025).

  • Bull Market Position: Transitioning from the first half to the middle, altcoin rebound window opens (BTC breaks previous high leading to capital outflow 4).

  • Buying Timing:

    • BTC/ETH: Increase position when retracing to key support (BTC $105,000/USD, ETH $3,800/USD) 86.

    • Altcoins: Enter when RSI drops below 50 and stabilizes with volume (e.g., SOL support at $158 7).

  • Profit-Taking Rhythm:

    • Large Capital: Exit in 3 batches after achieving 3-5 times target.

    • Medium/Small Capital: Withdraw principal upon doubling, leave profits in for excess returns.

💎 Ultimate Risk Control Principles.

  1. Position Upper Limit:

    • Total Investment ≤ 30% of liquid assets.

    • Single Project ≤ 20% of total position (large capital)/ 15% (medium capital)/ 5% (small capital).

  2. Zeroing Warning:

    • Project unlock volume > 20% of circulation or TVL weekly drop >30%, exit immediately 59.

  3. Cycle Switching Signal:

    • Altcoin season ending sign: BTC market share bottom rebound (currently 44.5%), need to transfer to mainstream coins within 3 days 4.

Core strategies and risk comparisons under different capital scales:

Currently still in the golden layout period of the bull market, but beware of 'narrative bubbles' (e.g., AI tokens with no actual revenue). Follow the principle of investing spare money, avoid leveraged gambling, to survive in volatility.

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