A senior analyst in the crypto circle bluntly stated: "Is there really no resistance above BTC? Don’t be misled by surface appearances!"
Today, BTC suddenly surged to the 120,000 USD mark, rising sharply by 3.8% within 24 hours, refreshing its historical high of 122,000 USD! However, beneath the surface, there are unsettling factors — the 4-hour K-line closed with a bearish candle, trading volume increased significantly by 18%, and selling pressure is quietly emerging. Is this round of rise driven by institutions forcing shorts to cover, or is it a trap set to lure in buyers? Should retail investors follow the trend and chase the rise, or take the opportunity to bottom fish?
News layer: Three major heavyweight news events ignite market momentum
The countdown to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts has begun
J.P. Morgan suddenly changed its stance overnight: A 25 basis point rate cut is certain in September, and there will be three consecutive cuts within the year! If the unemployment rate exceeds 4.4%, a substantial cut of 50 basis points may even occur. Looking back at historical data, during the 2020 rate cut cycle, BTC soared by 64,000 USD. Will this liquidity easing feast repeat itself?
ETF funds spark a frenzy
BlackRock's BTC ETF absorbed 1.2 billion USD in a single week, setting a new high since the halving! CME futures open interest exceeded 15 billion, and the proportion of call options reached 63%. Metaplanet purchased another 797 BTC, surpassing Tesla in holdings; the trend of corporate holdings may become a new market engine.
The ecological explosion hides a crisis
The daily trading volume of NFTs under the Ordinals protocol exceeded 5,000, and the locked amount on Layer 2 surpassed 8 billion. However, Tether issued an additional 4 billion USDT in a single week, and the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) broke through 1.2. Leverage funds are piling up like a volcano, and once the market corrects, it could trigger a chain reaction of liquidations!
On the technical side: The bulls and bears engage in a decisive battle at the 128,000 mark
Daily level signals show: MACD golden cross continues to expand, Bollinger Bands open upward, but the RSI indicator is overbought at 78, cautioning against a possible 17% pullback like what occurred in April 2023!
The alert at the 4-hour level has sounded: MACD histogram continues negative growth, KDJ forms a death cross, MA10/MA30 shows a downward trend. The key resistance level of 128,000 has gathered 3.7 billion in options contracts, a showdown between bulls and bears is imminent!
On the line of life and death: Support level rises to 115,000. If it falls below this position, it may trigger a battle to defend the 110,000 mark; resistance level at 128,000, if broken, then the 130,000 mark is just a step away!
Analyst's view: Will BTC definitely reach 130,000 this week?
"Institutions have already taken control of the market, retail investors need to act cautiously!"
CME open interest increased significantly by 47%, but the gross margin of Canaan Creative's mining machines suddenly dropped by 29% — amid the institutionalization of computing power, miners' selling pressure has reached a new low in 18 months. The negative correlation between BTC and the VIX index of the US stock market has reached -0.73, and the safe-haven attribute is continuously strengthening; however, Google search popularity is only 45, and the divergence between market sentiment and funds hides volatility risks!
Aggressive investors' advice: Attempt to go long with light positions at the 120,000 level, set a stop loss at 114,000, and target 128,000 - 132,000, controlling positions within 3%!
Conservative investors' advice: Wait for a correction to the 115,000 - 118,000 range to build positions in batches, with a single investment not exceeding 20% of assets.
Red line warning: Do not exceed 50% in spot positions, stay away from leveraged trading!
Retail investors must ask: Should we buy in fully now or decisively exit?
"Don’t be fooled by the talk of 'no pressure'!"
128,000 is a key watershed; if it cannot be broken, it may pull back to 110,000 in the short term. However, if the (GENIUS Act) passes, institutions like BlackRock will raise their BTC allocation from 0.3% to 1%, with 80 billion USD entering the market, which could directly push BTC up to 150,000!
Technical analysts' views:
The daily MACD golden cross is strongly upward, the Bollinger Bands open an upward channel, but RSI is overbought at 78, and a death cross has already appeared at the 4-hour level! 128,000 is a critical dividing line — the bulls and bears of 3.7 billion options face off here; if broken, 130,000 is within reach, but if it falls below, it will trigger a defense battle at 110,000! The conflicting signals in the technical aspect suggest that institutions may be using the rally to quietly offload, and retail investors blindly chasing highs may become bag holders! This week, the market will either violently break through or undergo a leverage cleansing, and technical investors are already prepared to respond!
"99% of people do not understand what 'opportunity' is! When the cognitive gap forms a crushing pressure, will you choose to be the prey or the hunter?"
