The cryptocurrency community is debating whether the four-year halving cycle of Bitcoin exists, as the market is reshaped by institutional funds and ETFs, transitioning to a new normal where macroeconomic factors and compliance work together. (Background: The premium on holding coins has decreased, and Bitcoin 'reserve companies' have been overshadowed by IPOs in the US stock market.) (Context: The US-China tariff war affects) Bitcoin mining company CleanSpark faces $185 million in tariffs due to imported BTC mining machines. The four-year halving cycle once set the pace for Bitcoin prices like a metronome, but in 2025, this rhythm is becoming unreliable. After the halving in April 2024, Bitcoin not only reached new highs ahead of schedule but also ignited a debate surrounding the cycle's survival. Several industry leaders believe that the influx of institutional funds and ETFs has reshaped the supply-demand structure, and the next market wave will no longer be dictated by halvings. At the same time, some voices emphasize that traditional cycles still hold reference value. Is the cycle coming to an 'end' or 'evolving'? We will analyze this from four perspectives: history, capital, macroeconomics, and strategy. Historical laws face challenges. After the past three halvings, Bitcoin reached peaks about a year later in 2013, 2017, and 2021, forming what seemed like a reliable four-year cycle. However, this time there is a clear divergence: before the 2024 halving, prices had already broken previous highs; as of August 2025, after the peak, it only fell back 26%, far below the historical correction range of over 70%. This divergence poses a risk to quantitative strategies built on historical trends and forces fund managers to reassess their positions. Investor Jason Williams bluntly stated: 'The top 100 Bitcoin companies hold about 1 million BTC; the cycle story is over.' On the same day, Bitwise Asset Management's Chief Investment Officer Matthew Hougan shared a similar view on CNBC, expecting positive returns in 2026 but no longer driven by halvings. The CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, Pierre Rochard, even stated, 'It seems the cycle has indeed come to an end.' ETF institutional funds rewrite the market. What truly shakes the faith in the cycle is the unprecedented scale of institutional buying. By the end of 2024, institutions held a total of 1.25 million BTC; by mid-2025, holdings rose to 1.86 million, securing over 8% of the circulating supply. The BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), launched in January 2024, accumulated about $87 billion in assets in less than two years, setting a record for ETF growth rates and creating sustained passive buying pressure. A large amount of passive allocation means that as long as new funds continue to flow into retirement and investment accounts, Bitcoin will receive similar long-term buying akin to indexing, with the macro environment, institutional flows, and ETF adoption potentially having equal influence as halvings. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju also recently stated that the market structure has shifted to 'institutional long-term holders dominating.' Opposing theory: it is merely becoming more complex. Broadening the perspective, interest rates, geopolitical issues, and presidential election cycles increasingly influence Bitcoin's trajectory more than a single halving. The pace of US interest rate hikes affects dollar liquidity; the Eurasian conflict positions Bitcoin as a hedge alternative; adjustments to the EU's MiCA framework and the controversy surrounding the US SAB 121 are redefining compliance boundaries and paving the way for institutional entry. However, some argue that the cycle has not disappeared but rather integrated into a more complex framework. Crypto analyst CRYPTO₿IRB believes that ETFs operate within the four-year presidential cycle, 'rather reinforcing Bitcoin's cyclicality.' Xapo Bank CEO Seamus Rocca also argues that while the structure has changed, the core rhythm remains. BTC moves towards a multidimensional era. As Bitcoin becomes increasingly mainstream, the focus of analysis shifts from 'counting down to the next halving' to 'tracking institutional positions and macro data.' Senior analysts like Tom Lee still believe there is a chance to challenge $200,000 to $250,000 in 2025, but the key drivers are redefined: corporate holdings in quarterly financial reports, net inflows from ETF subscriptions, and Federal Reserve policy guidance may be more indicative than a single halving. For investors, strategies must integrate the three main axes of supply-demand, interest rates, and regulation to maintain flexibility in a market that is stabilizing yet becoming more complex. Overall, the process of Bitcoin moving into mainstream finance has not diminished its narrative but shifted from 'a chapter every four years' to 'a long-running series.' If past markets resembled a roller coaster, now it resembles a highway that is still fast but with fewer curves, requiring drivers to adopt new dashboards. Whether the cycle is ending or evolving, understanding the new normal woven from institutional funds, macro environments, and regulations will be essential for the next phase.

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