"Dance at the Key Level: BTC performs a long-short battle at the 120,000 USD mark"

Today's BTC price is oscillating around 121,920 USDT, stuck between the golden ratio levels of 120,000 and 123,000, like a tightrope walker in high air—upwards is the strong resistance area of 123,000, while downwards is the life-and-death line of 115,300. This delicate balance has both bulls and bears clenching their fists.

Underlying Battle: The game between indicators and capital

  1. Bollinger Band Alert: Price is running closely along the upper band, but has not formed an effective breakout. Short-term overheating signals have turned yellow.

  2. MACD Stalemate: The fast and slow lines are glued above the zero axis, with red bars continuously shortening, causing both bullish and bearish forces to be in a stalemate, like two wrestlers grappling in a mud pit.

  3. Capital Underflow: Dense orders around 122,000, with sell orders standing like a wall, but the 3.38 billion holding amount shows that large funds are still 'watching the tiger fight from the mountain'.

News Aspect: A dual variation of policy and funding

Today's market hides two major variables:

  • Funding Rate Curse: In 49 minutes, the settlement moment will arrive. The current rate of 0.01% seems calm, but a sudden spike could trigger a short-term sell-off.

  • SEC Deregulation Benefits: The US SEC abolished the SAB121 accounting rule last month, allowing banks to custody cryptocurrency assets. This move is seen as an official green light for 'institutional entry', but the market is still digesting the policy dividends.

Operational Script: Three possibilities, how to bet?

  1. Optimistic Path (Probability 30%): If it stabilizes at 122,000 and breaks through 123,000 with volume, BTC may replicate history and surge towards the previous high of 125,000.

  2. Oscillation Script (Probability 50%): Repeated tug-of-war within the 120,000-123,000 range, suitable for a 'grid trading' strategy of buying low and selling high.

  3. Risk Warning (Probability 20%): If it falls below the critical level of 120,000, be alert to a rapid pullback to the support of 115,300. However, this is precisely the 'golden pit' where institutions like Grayscale and MicroStrategy are adding positions.

Personal Opinion: The current market resembles the accumulation period before BTC broke through 20,000 USD in 2020. The SEC's deregulation and Trump's 401 Executive Order form a policy dual wing, while the 'time bomb' of funding rate settlement could become the catalyst for a trend change. It is recommended to focus on tonight's non-farm data—if the unemployment rate rises, expectations for Fed rate cuts could become new fuel for BTC.

(Note: If Musk suddenly tweets 'BTC is the future' or if US debt ceiling negotiations break down, the above analysis will be void 🌚)