According to a report from Deep潮 TechFlow, on August 11, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzed that Trump's nomination of his long-time economic advisor Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board last week has sparked widespread attention in the market. Miran, as the main advocate for tariff policy within Trump's group, is also a staunch supporter of interest rate cuts, which stands in clear contrast to the cautious stance of current Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. This move is interpreted by the market as a strengthening of dovish forces within the Federal Reserve, reinforcing investors' expectations for future easing policies. As a result, risk assets like Bitcoin experienced a significant rebound last week, and market sentiment has become more optimistic.
This week, the United States will welcome three key economic data points: July's Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and the retail sales data known as the 'terrifying data.' The market generally expects these three data points to serve as core signals for validating the expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September. If both CPI and PPI exceed expectations, it may prompt investors to partially reduce their rate cut bets, pushing the dollar to strengthen in the short term and posing phased pressure on the cryptocurrency market; conversely, if retail sales data is significantly weaker than expected, it will highlight sluggish economic growth, thereby maintaining a high probability expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, limiting the rebound potential of the dollar and supporting the continued rise in prices of risk assets like Bitcoin.
In addition, attention to geopolitical issues has also increased. Trump and Putin are expected to meet in Alaska on August 15 to discuss the situation in Ukraine and bilateral relations. The outcome of this meeting may again influence market risk appetite.
Overall, the core drivers of the cryptocurrency market this week will revolve around macroeconomic data and geopolitical events. In the baseline scenario, if inflation data is moderate and retail sales are weak, Bitcoin is expected to continue its upward trend, hitting the $126,000 mark; however, if inflation exceeds expectations and heats up, caution is needed for the risk of prices retracing to the $116,000–$118,000 range. Overall, this week may exhibit trading characteristics of 'data-driven, with amplified emotional fluctuations.'
