Historically, the crypto market has typically followed a four-year bull and bear cycle around Bitcoin halving. However, industry analysts and experts indicate that this pattern may be breaking.
Author and investor Jason Williams posted on X: "The top 100 Bitcoin reserve companies hold nearly 1 million Bitcoins, which is the reason for the end of the Bitcoin four-year cycle."
Matthew Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management, expressed a similar view in an article on CNBC. He believes: "The formal end is when we have positive returns by 2026, but I think we will see it, so I believe the four-year cycle has ended."
In the past three market cycles, Bitcoin's price peak occurred in the year following the halving, namely in 2013, 2017, and 2021, and another peak is expected in 2025.
The end of the four-year crypto cycle
Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, agreed with this view on X, stating that the four-year cycle is likely already over. He added that Bitcoin halving is irrelevant to trading flow because 95% of Bitcoins have already been mined, with supply mainly coming from early investors and demand from retail, ETFs, and financial companies.
Although many believe the four-year cycle is effective and cannot be canceled, Xapo Bank CEO Seamus Rocca pointed out that the risk of a long-term bear market still exists, and the four-year cycle remains intact.
