1. Macro Liquidity
Currency liquidity has improved. Federal Reserve officials expressed new concerns about the latest signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market, enhancing market expectations for a potential rate cut as early as September. Although U.S. stocks continued to rise in August, key internal support from retail buying is showing signs of weakening, and risks for September are quietly gathering. The cryptocurrency market followed the weakness of U.S. stocks.
2. Overall Market Conditions
Market Capitalization Ranking Top 300 Gain List:
This week BTC fell, altcoins broadly declined, and speculative stocks prevailed. The main market line revolves around the ETH system.
Top 5 Gains
Gain Rate
Top 5 Declines
Decline Rate
MYX
1600%
FRAX
20%
M
60%
PI
20%
REKT
30%
WEMIX
20%
PUMP
20%
SUPER
20%
TOSHI
20%
MOG
20%
ETH: The ETH/BTC exchange rate has strengthened. U.S. stock BMNR holds $3 billion in ETH, becoming the largest treasury.
PROVE: A cloud computing platform for ZK zero-knowledge proofs, surged significantly in South Korea.
MYX: An on-chain contract exchange, operated by a local team, saw a massive increase of dozens of times.
3. On-Chain Data
BTC's price is hesitant after reaching new highs. The profitability of short-term holders has declined, and ETF capital flows have turned negative, marking the largest outflow since April 25. The market financing rate has dropped, indicating weakened confidence for a short-term rise.
The supply of stablecoins continues to grow by 1%.
Institutional funds experienced a net outflow for the first time in 15 weeks, while ETH continued to see capital inflows.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore, based on the total market cost, reflects the overall profitability state of the market. When the indicator is above 6, it indicates a top range; when below 2, it indicates a bottom range. MVRV falls.
4. Futures Market Conditions
Futures Funding Rate: This week's rate is 0.01%, which is normal. A rate of 0.05-0.1% indicates more long leverage, suggesting a short-term market top; a rate of -0.1-0% indicates more short leverage, suggesting a short-term market bottom.
Futures Open Interest: This week BTC open interest began to decline, indicating a withdrawal of main market funds.
Futures Long-Short Ratio: 1.1, market sentiment is neutral. Retail sentiment is mostly a contrarian indicator; below 0.7 is quite fearful, and above 2.0 is quite greedy. The long-short ratio data fluctuates greatly, reducing its reference significance.
5. Spot Market Conditions
BTC showed weak fluctuations this week, with a dominance rate decreasing by 5% to 61%. Looking back at July, the overall market capitalization of cryptocurrencies rose by 13%, benefiting from the continuous growth in institutional capital demand. Altcoins led by ETH performed excellently, with ETH spot ETF recording a record net inflow for 20 consecutive days. The U.S. House of Representatives passed the Genius Act, which aims to regulate stablecoins and was signed into law by President Trump.
