1. Fundamentals: Triple positive factors ignite enthusiasm for risky assets, and crypto liquidity floodgates are fully opened

1. The US stock market experienced a $1.1 trillion buyback storm, and the market liquidity remained loose.

US companies have launched the largest stock buyback wave in history, with $983.6 billion in buybacks announced so far this year and projected to exceed $1.1 trillion for the full year, a record high. The majority of buybacks are concentrated in tech giants, particularly those involved in artificial intelligence, reflecting their confidence in the economic outlook. This freed-up liquidity has also spilled over into the crypto market, boosting risk appetite.

2. Gold tariff blunder clarified, further strengthening the strategic position of crypto assets

The Trump administration has made it clear through an executive order that "no tariffs will be imposed on the import of gold bars." This move appears to target gold, but in fact it further signals the "promotion of the integration of crypto assets into the traditional financial system." The previous 401(k) pension market entry policy has opened up a compliance channel, and this clarification will eliminate market concerns about "tariff restrictions on alternative assets" and consolidate the long-term allocation value of crypto assets.

3. The Fed's dovish tone is increasing, and the expectation of three rate cuts this year has been realized

Federal Reserve Board Governor Bowman explicitly stated his support for three rate cuts this year, with the first in September, and plans to convene a conference on community bank reform in October. This signal far exceeded market expectations, not only reinforcing the certainty of a 25 basis point rate cut in September (the CME has a 95% probability), but also suggesting that the easing cycle may be more intense than previously anticipated, providing continued positive news for liquidity-sensitive crypto assets.

BTC Technical Analysis: Breaking through 120K confirms acceleration, and the bullish trend is fully launched

Breakout Signals and Trend Verification

The surge and then decline from last Friday to Saturday effectively released the selling pressure in the 116K-120K range. The large-volume closing of a large real-body bullish candle on Sunday confirmed the breakthrough. Today, the upward trend continued and stabilized above 120K. The technical side showed three positive signals:


  • Trend reversal: The MACD indicator's fast and slow lines form a golden cross, and the histogram turns from negative to positive, indicating that the short-term momentum is weakening and the bulls' dominance is established, officially entering the early stage of the bull market from the correction phase;

  • Strong weekly trend: The weekly line closed with a large real bullish candlestick, recovering the previous week's losses, maintaining an oscillating upward structure, and no signs of top divergence appeared;

  • Volume coordination: During the breakthrough process, trading volume continued to increase, and the 4-hour line showed the characteristics of "large-volume rise + healthy pullback", similar to the trend before the launch on July 10, and there was no obvious overdraft on the technical side.

Key points and operation strategies

  • Support zone: 120K-121K USD (the confirmation level after the breakout + MA5 daily moving average). If the price stabilizes in this range, it can be bullish on dips.

  • pressure zone: 122.5K-123.5K US dollars (near the previous historical high). If it breaks through with large volume, it is expected to challenge 125K.
    The intraday strategy is mainly to buy low and buy low, avoid chasing the rise, and make arrangements after the price pulls back to the support area and stabilizes.

ETH Technical Analysis: Weekly Growth of 21% Breaking Through 4000, Aiming for a New All-Time High of 4800

Main uptrend characteristics and target outlook

After two weeks of adjustments, ETH broke out strongly. Last week, it closed with a large real bullish candlestick with a 21% increase, breaking through the $4,000 mark. The technical side showed the characteristics of "trend acceleration":


  • Moving average arrangement: The short- and medium-term moving averages are fully extended, with steep angles, forming strong support, which is consistent with the characteristics of the main upward trend stage;

  • Volume and momentum: Trading volume is moderately increasing, MACD golden cross is diverging upward, and the positive value of the column continues to expand. There is ample room for momentum to be released, and there is no direct reversal risk in the short term;

  • Target calculation: This round of increase has exceeded 20%. Judging from the trend continuity, it is expected to challenge the historical high of US$4,800. The 30-day moving average (currently around US$3,950) is the key defense.

Intraday operations and support and pressure

The 4-hour line is rising and has not broken away from the moving average support, and the trend is healthy.


  • Support Zone: $4280-4320 (MA10 daily moving average + yesterday's correction low);

  • Pressure zone: $4480-4520 (round level + short-term profit-taking zone).
    The strategy is mainly to buy on dips. If it falls below $4,280, we need to be wary of a short-term decline in sentiment.

4. Altcoins: Selective bull market begins, four main lines lock in opportunities for catch-up gains

The current altcoin market is showing a selective bull market trend, with core sectors leading the way and others following suit. The weakness of altcoins during Bitcoin's upward trend presents an opportune opportunity to capitalize on the market's upward trend. Focus on four key themes:


  1. Ethereum Ecosystem L2: Leaders ARB and OP have recovered their pullback potential, while SNX has maintained a stable trend, benefiting from the ecological spillover effect of Ethereum's main upward trend;

  2. AI crypto sector: The sector's total market capitalization has tripled to $15 billion in two years. Projects with technological innovation and accumulated capital, such as WLD and TAO, continue to gain recognition.

  3. Decentralized financial infrastructure: XRP, AVAX, LINK, ALGO, DOT, etc. have the value of inter-chain interconnection and are listed as long-term investment targets by institutions. With favorable regulatory conditions, there is ample room for valuation recovery;

  4. MEME high volatility track: BONK has attracted attention due to its community foundation and technological breakthroughs, and is suitable for short-term sentiment band operations.


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Risk Warning: The crypto market is subject to significant volatility driven by sentiment and capital. The above analysis is solely personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Market participants must control their positions and risks.