ETH has surged, how far can SOL go?
In the last three days, SOL's price has continued to rebound, closing at 185.16 on August 11, up about 4% from August 9.
The 30-day volatility remains between 0.64 and 0.65, indicating an active market without extreme fluctuations.
On August 10, trading volume increased significantly, reflecting heightened capital activity.
II. Fundamentals and Market Sentiment
1. ETF and Institutional Capital Boost
Several asset management companies (such as Bitwise, VanEck, 21Shares, Grayscale) have resubmitted applications for SOL spot ETFs, with strong market expectations for ETF approvals driving capital inflows and price increases.
Institutions continue to increase their holdings in SOL, with public companies like DeFi Development Corp and Upexi making significant purchases and participating in node staking, enhancing network security and ecological vitality.
2. Ecosystem and Technical Progress
The Solana ecosystem continues to expand, with recent global launches of the Seeker mobile phone and Jito Labs' Block Assembly Marketplace among other innovative applications, enhancing on-chain activity and user experience.
In June, Solana's ecosystem revenue reached $1.6 billion, with 62% coming from meme coins, indicating active on-chain trading and DeFi activity.
3. Key Technical Levels
SOL has recently tested the 200-day moving average (approximately $130) multiple times and found support, indicating strong buying interest below.
It is currently facing pressure at the round number of 200; if it breaks through with volume, it may challenge historical highs.
The RSI indicator is close to 50; if it crosses above, it is expected to strengthen further.
4. Market Sentiment
Long-term sentiment is bullish, while short-term sentiment is driven by ETF expectations and positive ecosystem developments, leading to active capital flows.
However, caution is needed for potential short-term profit-taking and uncertainties related to the macroeconomy and regulation.
III. Market Outlook
Short-term: If it can effectively break through $200, along with increased trading volume, it may initiate a new round of upward momentum, targeting the range of 210-250.
Medium-term: Positive developments regarding ETFs, continuous institutional accumulation, and ecological innovations are expected to keep attracting capital, maintaining a strong market posture.
Risk points: If ETF approvals face obstacles or the macro environment changes unexpectedly, caution against pullback risks is advised, with attention on the support range of 170-180.
Therefore, the reference conclusion: SOL is currently in a bullish dominant pattern, with ETFs, institutional accumulation, and ecological innovations as the main driving forces. Short-term focus on the breakout above 200 with accompanying volume, and a mid-to-long-term outlook is optimistic for its ecological growth and capital support, but caution is warranted for short-term volatility and external risks. $SOL