Federal Reserve Watch: A 25 basis points rate cut in September seems to be a foregone conclusion, with at least two more cuts expected before the end of the year.
According to the latest data from CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in September (4.25%-4.50%) is 11.6%, while the probability of a 25 basis points cut (4.00%-4.25%) is 88.4%. It can be concluded that a 25 basis points cut in September is basically assured.
Furthermore, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in October (4.25%-4.50%) is 4.2%, the probability of a cumulative cut of 25 basis points (4.00%-4.25%) is 39.2%, and the probability of a cumulative cut of 50 basis points (3.75%-4.00%) is 56.7%. It can be basically confirmed that the likelihood of no rate cut in October is extremely low.
Looking ahead to December, the probability of a 50 basis points cut (3.75%-4.00%) is only 45.3%, the probability of a 25 basis points cut (4.00%-4.25%) is 42.7%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 11.2%.
From this, it can be seen that the Federal Reserve may face at least two rate cuts before the end of the year, with each cut generally around 25 basis points.
Conclusion:
In summary, a rate cut in September seems to be a foregone conclusion, and the Federal Reserve's determination to cut rates at least two more times before the end of the year is becoming increasingly clear.
This adjustment in interest rate policy is expected to have a significant impact on global financial markets, including stock markets, bond markets, and cryptocurrency markets.
Against this backdrop, investors need to closely monitor policy trends to make more informed investment decisions.
What are your thoughts on the potential rate cut measures by the Federal Reserve? Will your investment strategies change in response to the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments?
