This Tuesday's CPI is the most critical indicator of the week. If the actual CPI data significantly exceeds market expectations, it will directly impact the market's confidence in interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, casting uncertainty over the outlook once again. Cryptocurrency prices are likely to face a new round of adjustment pressure.
On Wednesday, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, who has FOMC voting rights, will give a speech. Any hints he makes regarding the current economic assessment or future interest rate path could quickly disturb market sentiment and should be closely monitored.
Thursday's PPI data and Friday's industrial production and retail sales data are also crucial. They will provide the latest evidence of the momentum of the U.S. economy, especially validating whether there are signs of economic contraction. This data will help interpret the inflation trends reflected by the CPI and the underlying economic health.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market is currently pricing in an 88.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. Following comments from Fed Vice Chairman Bowman (who typically has a hawkish stance) over the weekend, this probability may see a slight adjustment when the interest rate futures market reopens on Monday.
The key point is whether this high probability expectation can be maintained until the end of the week, which will directly depend on the actual results of the aforementioned key data such as CPI and the tone of officials' comments. Currently, a September rate cut cannot be 100% confirmed, and real-time monitoring of macroeconomic news is still necessary.