The market is like a spring; the longer it's compressed, the higher it will bounce! This wave of ETH accumulation is likely to make the bears collectively 'break defense'!

Current market situation: Bulls 'holding back their big move', $4346 is the key battlefield

Let's look at the chart and speak clearly:

  1. The range fluctuation is almost over: ETH has recently been bouncing in the $4160-$4346 range, but the key point is that it has hit the ceiling of $4346 five times in a row! It’s like boxing; if your opponent keeps raising their hands to block your uppercut, it means you’re about to hit them—this is the current state of the bulls, anxious and restless.

  2. $4300 is the 'psychological life-or-death line': the price is stuck around $4300, which is like the passing mark of 60 in an exam—if it stands firm, the teacher might directly add 20 points (to $4500); if it doesn't hold, it might have to retake the exam (fall back to $4200).

Technical indicators collectively 'sound the charge trumpet'

  1. MACD golden cross: the 'starting gun' for the bulls
    Look at those two lines below; the fast line has crossed above the slow line from below, forming a 'golden cross'. It’s like the moment the race starts—the bears were in control before, but now the bulls have taken over, with over a 70% chance of a short-term rise!

  2. RSI 'neither hot nor cold', just right enough to ignite
    RSI is currently hovering around 50, neither in the 'overheated zone' at 80 nor below the 'ice cellar zone' at 30. What does this mean? It's like just having run 1 kilometer; your heart rate increases but you can still accelerate—there's still plenty of room for an upward move!

  3. Trading volume 'real gold and silver' supports the bottom
    Recently, every time the price surges, the trading volume follows suit. What does this indicate? It's not retail investors speculating blindly, but rather institutions and large investors buying in with real money! It's like you run a milk tea shop and suddenly a crowd lines up to buy; they must know your shop is about to become popular—the market is currently 'queuing to buy ETH'.

News front: ETF approval + upgrade expectations, giving the bulls a 'boost'

  1. US ETF approval 'progress bar 90%'
    Recently, news broke that the ETH ETF application from a large asset management institution has entered the SEC's 'final review phase'. Once approved, traditional financial institutions will be able to buy ETH just like buying stocks—how much incremental capital will this bring? A conservative estimate is several hundred billion dollars!

  2. Ethereum upgrade 'countdown'
    Next month, Ethereum will undergo the 'Pectra upgrade', increasing transaction speed by 30% and reducing fees by 50%. It’s like upgrading a mobile system—before it was lagging, now it’s smooth as silk; users will definitely rush to use it, demand will skyrocket, and how can the price not rise?

Personal opinion:
With technical and news factors driving simultaneously, the probability of ETH breaking $4346 today is over 80%! Once it stands firm, $4500 will be like a layer of window paper—easy to break with a gentle poke. It might even replicate Bitcoin's March trend, surging directly to $4800!

Risk reminder: Don't let 'victory go to your head'

  1. Breakthrough must be 'effective': merely touching $4346 isn’t enough; the closing price has to remain above it.

  2. Volume can't 'drop the ball': trading volume must continue to expand during the breakout; if volume shrinks during the surge, it might indicate a 'lack of follow-through'.

  3. $4500 might face 'profit-taking selling': round number levels are always psychological resistance points, and short-term funds might take profits here, causing a price correction. But a correction doesn’t change the trend—it’s like climbing a mountain; take a breather and continue upwards!

Is this wave of ETH a 'false breakout' or 'real takeoff'? Is getting in now 'catching the bag' or 'bottom fishing'?

Follow Long Brother, he speaks the truth, taking you to earn clear profits!