I believe the current situation deserves a detailed analysis, especially with the alignment of technical factors with fundamental developments on the network.
Current Price Performance
XLM is currently trading near $0.444, slightly down from the previous close, but what is noteworthy is that the weekly performance remains positive, as the coin has gained approximately 12% over the past seven days. This reflects a growing buying momentum in the short term, even with daily price fluctuations.
During the last trading session, the price ranged between $0.433 as the lowest level and $0.454 as the highest level, showing relatively compressed price movement, which may precede a bigger move in the upcoming direction.
Technical Analysis
In my opinion, the current technical analysis of XLM is cautiously optimistic. I notice the formation of a Falling Wedge pattern that has been broken upward, which is often a precursor to a price rally. Additionally, there are other supporting signals:
The emergence of a Double Bottom pattern that reflects strength in the support area.
The occurrence of the Golden Cross on some timeframes, which historically supports the upward trend.
If the price maintains the support area between $0.38 – $0.335, the strongest scenario in my opinion is a continued rise towards $0.52, and with a solid breakthrough, we may see levels of $0.64, and even $0.80 in the medium term.
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Fundamental and supportive factors
Beyond technical analysis, there are fundamental data that make me more optimistic:
1. Increased Network Activity: The Stellar network has seen a transaction increase of approximately 17 – 22%, indicating growth in adoption and practical use of the currency.
2. Upcoming Update – Protocol 23: Testing is scheduled to begin on August 14, 2025, followed by an official vote for activation on September 3, 2025. This update may bring significant improvements to network performance, which could increase the attractiveness of XLM for investors and developers.
3. Expansion in DeFi and Stablecoins: Stellar is expanding its presence in the decentralized finance sector and supporting stablecoins, opening up new use cases.
🌟Summary and Personal Expectations
In my opinion, XLM is now in a balanced position leaning towards positivity. The technical side is sending bullish signals, and the fundamental factors reinforce this scenario. Personally, I would be cautious in monitoring support levels, targeting the mentioned resistance areas if the momentum continues. In the long term, the continued adoption of the network and updates to its protocol will remain the most important factor in driving the price to higher levels.