📌 [What I'm Playing This Week] Episode 1: From the explosive circular loans to the decline in Alpha yields, let's talk about my practice and observations✍️
Hello friends~ A brand new sharing column 'What I'm Playing This Week' has started!! 👏
Every week, I will synchronize the projects, pitfalls I've encountered, and new opportunities I've observed here—purely for recording and sharing, not constituting any investment advice! Mainly for my own review~
If you're interested, you can hit follow, and I will continue to share on this account. I also look forward to discussing and improving together with everyone in the comments! 😀
🔥 This week's hottest topic: Has USDE circular lending cooled down?
This week, the most discussed topic in the crypto world is still Aave's USDE circular loan.
Theoretically up to 50% APR sounds appealing, but since its launch on July 29, the enthusiasm has quietly cooled down:
- The limits were snatched up the moment they were released; manual operations simply couldn't keep up;
- Since the day before yesterday (August 8th), ENA's official rate has been adjusted, and the returns have significantly declined. I estimate that the next expansion may have a chance to be manually included.
I have been following this project, but ultimately chose not to invest for now.
Why didn't I invest❓ Mainly two concerns⬇️:
1️⃣ Liquidation Risk:
Although both staking and lending are in stablecoins, USDE has historically experienced temporary decoupling (like the time Bybit was hacked), directly leading to large-scale liquidations.
Someone in the group said that this time Aave's oracle hardcoded 'USDE:USDT=1:1', and its authenticity is questionable; I don't dare to bet for now.
2️⃣ There are more stable alternatives:
✅ TON Official Custodial Wallet:
Staking USDT for USDE, 15% annualized, single wallet limit is 25,000 U.
The downside is 'custody'—private keys are not in your own hands. If the TG account is stolen or banned, the money may go down the drain.
✅ TON Space Non-Custodial Wallet:
Similarly, with around 15% annual yield, single wallet limit is 10,000 U, 5% yield is from USDE, and the remaining 10% is distributed using TON. The private key is held by oneself, providing a good sense of security.
(Note: All the above methods, if the USDE interest rate adjusts back to 11 next week, will all see some recovery, circular loans returning to 50%, and TON returning to 21%.)
🎯 BN-Alpha: Yield decline + AI tools on the way.
There's some bad news that must be mentioned: August's Alpha yields are visibly declining.
A threshold of 200 points + a bunch of low-quality projects + a gap in trading competitions, resulting in a severe drop in returns.
I pessimistically estimate that this month's earnings may only be about 60% of last month's... Does anyone feel the same?
But I did something interesting this week that may help everyone⬇️
I wrote a 'Data Recording + Prediction System for the Alpha Trading Competition—besides being able to see some basic data in real-time, it will also sync trading data and make threshold predictions based on previous historical data.
The process is a bit energy-consuming, but the final effect is still quite satisfactory. I expect to meet everyone next week~~ You can continue to follow my tweets, and I will share with you as soon as it goes live!
📝 DeFi Practical Operation: Withdrew some money and also set up a few positions.
(Only for personal experience recording and sharing, not constituting any investment advice)
1️⃣ MMT:
✅ Multiple accounts participated in OKX's Pre-TGE event:
Borrowed SUI on the exchange to create XSUI-SUI LP, overall annualized 8%.
Don't worry about impermanent loss, just need to keep an eye on prices from time to time to see if they have gone out of range. Ends on August 24, estimated TGE will be at the end of the month.
✅ Also participated in the MMT and OneKey events:
Staking USDC, the underlying is SUIUSDT-USDC LP, relatively stable. Limited time 20% annualized (valid before TGE), the yield not enough from LP will be supplemented with tokens after launch.
2️⃣ Yala:
Continuing to stake.
Currently, there are various ways to play. The straightforward and aggressive staking of YU has an interest rate of 14% + point earnings. The officials said the second quarter will be settled in October.
Honestly, the first season was too rushed; many people didn't have time to snapshot before it ended... However, recently Yala has been performing quite well since launching contracts, betting that the second season can yield some gains.
3️⃣ Terminal:
Bought some YT, can earn 50 times ENA points + 60 times Terminal points.
Based on the current ENA price, relying solely on ENA points can basically break even + make a small profit, and Terminal points are essentially a giveaway~
Here's a little tip: Terminal distributes points weekly according to TVL proportion; the smaller the TVL, the more cost-effective it is to enter. The risk point of the entire YT is that if you hedge, the ENA rate may incur a significant cost.
Above, with 38T points at the end of ena S4, the distribution ratio is 3.5%. Each M point earns 13.81 coins, calculated at a price of 0.7, each M point earns 9.6 U.
4️⃣ StandX:
Due to the delay in Perp's launch and the interest rate dropping sharply to 11% - 5%, I have withdrawn most of the funds to observe.
🐶 Low-quality token observation: In a bull market, it's even more important to keep your pockets tight!
I didn't touch any low-quality tokens this week, but I was shocked by an anonymous project called Heaven—just a simple document managed to raise 27 million U, and the project team symbolically refunded a few million, eventually setting a launch market cap of over 20 million... I can only say that everyone is too wealthy...
Just a reminder: The stronger the bull market, the easier it is to get swept away by FOMO emotions.
Project teams and market makers love to package junk as gold during this time; you must think carefully: Are you buying an opportunity or someone else's 'trash'?
🚩 Other New Discoveries: Pendle's Boros is worth paying attention to.
Pendle's new platform Boros is now live, focusing on financial tools for 'funding rates', currently only BTC and ETH are open.
**Key Point**: If altcoins are opened in the future, there will be many ways to play! For example, if you are worried that a certain altcoin's rate will turn negative later, you can open a short rate to hedge the risk. I plan to focus on researching this next week. Friends who understand can exchange ideas in the comments, and I will also continue to pay attention and share~
🧩 This week's fan Q&A: Two frequent questions.
Q1: For the Alpha trading competition, how much is enough for a certain coin?
A1: Guessing too early is just a blind guess; predicting 2-3 days in advance is relatively accurate. Wait until next week when my system goes live (the one mentioned above), and you can check the data yourself to guess~
Q2: Why does the price drop every time I buy? Am I always getting squeezed by bots?
A2: Bots are an objective reality (I previously wrote a post about coping methods, click here to see 👉 Why do you always struggle with limit orders? From underlying logic to practical skills, this article explains it all).
Remember: If you're squeezed, you must quickly stop loss; don’t fantasize about altcoins bouncing back—I've seen too many people turn a loss of a few U into a loss of several hundred U, which is not worth it!
That's all for this week's sharing! What have you all been playing lately? Any pitfalls or treasures found? Let's chat in the comments and help each other~~ See you next time!
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Lastly, a reminder: This article is only a personal experience recording and sharing, not constituting any investment advice. If you don’t understand what I’m talking about, please don’t participate. Digital currency has a high level of risk.