This week's rise in Bitcoin may be less related to a strong buying wave, but more due to the dwindling supply on Binance — a situation that could lead to more significant price volatility in the near future.
The sentiment of institutions towards cryptocurrencies is diverging across global markets. In the US, Harvard University quietly invested 116 million dollars in Bitcoin ETF funds. Meanwhile, in Japan, the launch of the country's first cryptocurrency ETF has been postponed as regulators are still finalizing the necessary regulations.
Tight supply drives Bitcoin up
Data from CryptoQuant indicates that the latest Bitcoin price increase on Binance was driven more by limited supply rather than a new influx of buyers.
From March to May, spikes in taker volume showed strong liquidity being pumped, especially after the drop to 75,000 dollars in April.
However, these peaks have narrowed since June, even as prices continue to reach new highs, indicating that the number of strong buying transactions has decreased.
The volume of limit orders also remains low, reflecting the lack of sellers at the current price level.
A thin order book could push prices higher if supply continues to be scarce. However, this also makes the market vulnerable to sharp drops if large sell orders appear unexpectedly.
Harvard invests 116 million dollars in Bitcoin ETF
The tightening supply coincides with new signals of confidence from institutions. Filings submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for Q2/2025 show that Harvard University allocated 116.6 million dollars into BlackRock's IBIT Bitcoin ETF fund, making this investment the fifth-largest holding of the university, surpassing even Alphabet.
Although Harvard's investment portfolio includes major players like Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon, IBIT stands out as the only investment that directly approaches the Web3 field.
This move comes despite July's lackluster performance of Bitcoin ETFs, as capital inflows slowed and BlackRock's Ethereum fund briefly surpassed IBIT during that time.
For traders monitoring the increasingly thin order book on Binance, market liquidity appears to be tightening. Nevertheless, Harvard's participation shows that institutions are still willing to invest.
Japan's first cryptocurrency ETF remains "stalled"
While institutions in the US like Harvard are making strides, Japan's efforts to enter the cryptocurrency ETF market remain stalled.
Earlier this week, SBI Holdings (a major financial group in Japan) filed to launch an ETF fund combining Bitcoin and XRP. However, SBI later clarified that they have not submitted any applications and asserted:
"Contrary to some information in the media, we have not submitted an application to establish an ETF fund related to cryptocurrencies."
According to SBI Holdings, this product is still in the planning stage. Applications will only be submitted after the regulatory body completes legal amendments. These amendments aim to classify certain cryptocurrencies under Japan's Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. A representative from SBI Holdings stated:
"In Japan, cryptocurrency-integrated ETF funds are expected to be approved in line with the guidelines of the financial and tax authorities... Therefore, applications will be submitted after these legal amendments are completed."
The proposals from the Financial Services Agency of Japan (FSA) last June are seen as a step forward. However, without a legal framework or specific roadmap, the launch of the fund may still take a few more months.