The possibility of ETH breaking through $4500 is quite high. The following is an analysis based on market conditions, technical analysis, and fund flows:

• Market conditions are favorable: As of August 9, 2025, the ETH price was $4234.28, with an increase of 8.58% in 24 hours and a cumulative rise of over 80% for the year. The core driving forces behind this round of increases include large-scale inflows of institutional funds, the realization of technical upgrades, and macroeconomic benefits. The overall market is optimistic about ETH, providing a favorable market environment for it to break through $4500.

• Technical indicators show a breakout signal: Currently, ETH has stabilized above the psychological barrier of $4000. If it continues to break through the historical resistance zone of $4100-$4200, it will open up upward space to $4500. From a technical analysis perspective, if ETH stabilizes above $4100, based on extended line calculations and wave theory, $4391-$4500 will become a high-probability target area.

• On-chain data supports the trend: Over the past month, major whale addresses have increased their holdings by 870,000 ETH (approximately $3.68 billion), indicating a rise in holding concentration and bullish expectations. At the same time, the reserve amount of ETH on exchanges is visibly declining, and the number of deposit addresses is decreasing, which means that the short-term selling pressure from retail and institutional investors has significantly reduced. The circulating ETH in the market is becoming 'scarce', tilting the supply-demand balance in favor of bulls, which is beneficial for price increases.

• Ecological development is positive: After Ethereum 2.0 fully transitioned to proof of stake (PoS), network energy consumption has been reduced by 99%, attracting more environmentally friendly investors and institutions. Sharding and Layer 2 scaling have increased transaction speeds to over 100,000 transactions per second, reduced gas fees, and promoted the proliferation of DeFi and NFT applications, increasing the demand for ETH.

• Institutional funds are favored: There has been a massive influx of institutional funds, such as BlackRock, which continues to increase its holdings of ETH. Related funds are also experiencing strong gains, with the ChinaAMC Ether ETF rising 5.92% in a single day and the Fidelity Ethereum fund increasing by 4.94%. This indicates strong market confidence in ETH, and the support from a large amount of institutional funds provides strong financial backing for its breakthrough of $4500.

• Favorable macroeconomic conditions: Expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have strengthened, leading to increased demand for risk asset allocation. As a type of risk asset, cryptocurrencies are favored by more investors, creating a favorable macroeconomic environment for the rise in ETH prices.

However, the cryptocurrency market is highly uncertain, with significant price volatility. Attention should still be paid to the seasonal pullback risk in August, changes in the probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, policy risks such as the SEC's proposal to tax staking rewards, and factors like the potential short-squeeze triggered by the CME futures gap.#ETH走势分析 $ETH