Bitcoin last traded at $120,000 on July 23, leaving traders questioning whether a new all-time high (ATH) is still possible this year?
Global economic instability and the sustainability of the artificial intelligence industry remain the biggest risks. However, three key drivers in the short and medium term could push Bitcoin far beyond its current market capitalization of $2.3 trillion.
Some analysts expect Bitcoin to exceed the $23 trillion valuation of gold, while others believe that the process of completely separating from technology stocks will take longer as adoption is still in its early stages.
Even if investor perception does not change, the expansion of the global money supply is laying the foundation for a new paradigm, and Nvidia (NVDA) may be signaling that shift.
Bitcoin Trading Like Nvidia, Strategy And Metaplanet
Nvidia's market capitalization has skyrocketed to $4.4 trillion from $2.3 trillion in March, although the company's latest quarterly net income is almost unchanged from six months ago.
Traders may be betting on much higher future returns, or valuation metrics are losing meaning as more governments are expected to accelerate monetary expansion due to growing public debt burdens.
The global M2 money supply from the 21 largest central banks reached a record $55.5 trillion in July, while the U.S. federal budget deficit reached $1.3 trillion in just nine months.
Such conditions reinforce the argument for Bitcoin bulls, even if BTC still has a relatively strong correlation with tech stocks.
However, capital inflows from retail investors are still quite absent despite Bitcoin's 116% gain in the past year, but this is expected to change.
The gap from the S&P 500's 22% annual return is acting as a new capital 'magnet', especially as the cryptocurrency is increasingly gaining attention in mainstream media with companies like Strategy (MSTR) and MetaPlanet (MTPLF) consistently making headlines.
Currently, crypto apps like Coinbase and Robinhood show virtually no signs of interest from retail investors, as both remain outside the top 10 — a position they last achieved in November 2024.
Although the catalyst for the return of retail money is unclear, there is still plenty of room for price increases led by retail investors in 2025, especially as traditional finance and the US government are gradually accepting Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Gets 'Green Light' For 401(k)
U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday, allowing cryptocurrencies and other alternative assets to be included in 401(k) retirement accounts.
Michael Heinrich, co-founder and CEO of 0G Labs, noted a 401(k) regulatory change could “unlock trillions of dollars of pension capital for Bitcoin.”
Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan says this change could be a turning point for the industry.
Currently, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs hold $150 billion in assets, compared to $198 billion for gold instruments as of July 2025.
As spot Bitcoin ETFs surpass equivalent gold holdings, this event could help reinforce the perception of Bitcoin as a reserve asset rather than just a high-risk investment.
Over time, many institutional investors are likely to add Bitcoin to their portfolios, as it is increasingly seen as a reserve asset for listed companies, national investment funds, and governments. While the exact timing is uncertain, Bitcoin's path to a new peak in 2025 seems clearly defined.