Dear fans, today we will delve deeply into the matters of the speculative market. Do not underestimate these details; they can help you 'ride the waves' in critical moments.
First, let's talk about the tariff news for next week. If it's all negative, it probably won't stir up much of a splash, at most just a 4-hour level correction or a drop to the daily midline position, to be measured with the KC indicator or Bollinger Bands. The extent of this correction is likely in the range of 6.5%-9%. At this time, you should carefully consider your short positions; if calculated at this ratio, can the position be successfully executed? If you feel it can't be escaped, then it's better to reduce your position quickly for safety. After all, once this is over, there won't be much bad news expected in the short term.
Looking further ahead, the market is expected to start stirring in late August. Why? Because the interest rate cut in September will begin to be speculated. Originally, the probability of a rate cut in September is not low, and regardless of whether it ultimately happens, market sentiment will surely be lifted this time, and you might even get a nice little climax. However, if this situation occurs, position control must be kept in mind; you should reduce your position in batches and not act impulsively. If the price is pulling up, wait for it to show a 4-hour double top pattern; then you can consider adding a little.
And one more thing, if you're not interested in those flashy chart techniques, that's okay. There's a simple and practical algorithm here that will help you avoid many pitfalls in a one-sided trend. I mentioned it to everyone before, and today I'm going to talk about it again.
Look at the recent highs; if the drop from this highest point to the lowest does not exceed 9.5%, that is a 4-hour correction. In the range of 6.5%-9%, it can basically be seen as a 4-hour bottom area. If the price starts to rebound from here, exceeding 3% and stabilizing, then the bulls are likely to take over, and there is a possibility of hitting a new high or forming a double top near the previous high. However, if it drops to 9%, and the rebound strength is less than 3% and unstable, creating new lows, then it will connect with the daily correction, and this correction will be significant, around 12%-20%. At this point, the rebound situation needs to be observed; if it still fails to exceed 3% and remains unstable, leading to new lows, then a weekly correction is not far off. However, during this process, as long as the price rebounds over 3% and stabilizes, there is hope for a trend reversal.
Although this algorithm can't claim to be 100% accurate, it is reliable about 80% of the time and can help you save on 'tuition fees'. However, it is mainly suitable for the four giants: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Binance Coin. As for those altcoins, they are too tricky; their price movements can be determined by just one candlestick.
However, speaking of which, even if you focus on these four giants, you'll have a better idea to deal with those altcoins. After all, if Bitcoin drops, except for those uniquely characterized coins with outrageous transaction fees that can hold steady, other coins will inevitably suffer, and none will escape.
In short, the market is quite deep, but as long as we master the methods and respond calmly, we can find many tricks within it, and who knows, we might even 'harvest' something in the speculative market.
Dear friends, if you have any questions about this algorithm or unique insights, feel free to express yourself in the comments section. Let's chat about the things happening in the speculative market!
#ETH突破4000 #特朗普加密新政 #美联储比特币储备 #特朗普允许401(k)投资加密货币 #美SEC批准流动性质押 $BTC
