Key Takeaways
Record global money supply growth is building a structural tailwind for BTC.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs are on track to rival gold’s holdings, boosting reserve-asset appeal.
Retail inflows remain limited but could spark the next major rally if sentiment shifts.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $117,091, with many investors watching the $122,000 level as the next key breakout point. The last time BTC touched that price was on July 23, and while macro uncertainty and AI sector sustainability remain risks, analysts say three catalysts could propel BTC to new highs in 2025.
1. Global Money Supply at Record Highs
The M2 money supply across the 21 largest central banks reached a record $55.5 trillion in July, according to BGeometrics.
Rising fiscal deficits — such as the $1.3 trillion U.S. shortfall in just nine months — are fueling expectations for accelerated monetary expansion, a historically bullish backdrop for scarce assets like Bitcoin.
Some analysts compare BTC’s price dynamics to Nvidia (NVDA), whose valuation surged from $2.3 trillion in March to $4.4 trillion despite flat earnings. The takeaway: valuation metrics may matter less when markets price in monetary growth rather than current fundamentals.
2. Spot Bitcoin ETFs Closing the Gap with Gold
As of July, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs hold around $150 billion in assets, compared with $198 billion for gold ETFs.
Once Bitcoin ETFs surpass gold’s equivalent holdings, the shift could help reframe BTC as a reserve asset rather than just a risk-on trade. This perception change may encourage further allocations from public companies, sovereign wealth funds, and institutional investors.
3. Potential Retail Inflow Wave
Despite a 116% gain over the past year, retail participation remains muted. App Store rankings show crypto platforms still outside the U.S. finance category’s top 10 — a level last seen in November 2024.
That could change after President Donald Trump’s recent executive order allowing cryptocurrencies in 401(k) retirement accounts. Industry leaders estimate this could unlock trillions in retirement capital for Bitcoin.
The performance gap between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 — 116% vs. 22% in the past year — could also draw new capital as mainstream coverage increases and high-profile corporate buyers like Strategy and MetaPlanet keep BTC in the spotlight.
Global liquidity growth, ETF adoption momentum, and potential retail inflows form a strong bullish case for Bitcoin in 2025. While timing remains uncertain, these structural drivers could be enough to push BTC beyond $122K and toward a new all-time high, according to Cointelegraph.
