'In a bull market, every pullback is an opportunity for the brave; in a bear market, every rebound is the grim reaper’s scythe for the greedy.'—Right now, Ethereum is on the 'acceleration lane' of the bull market, but whether the end of the runway is a rainbow or a cliff, we need to have a serious chat.

First, let me douse some cold water: Don't be dizzy from the number '5000', the short-term risks are much greater than the opportunities.

Recently, ETH has surged particularly, breaking through $4200, and my social circle is filled with voices saying 'the bull market is back!'. But seasoned investors know that the crazier the market gets, the more cautious you must be of these three big pitfalls:

1. Technical 'false breakout': Right now ETH is stuck at $4100, it feels like missing a step while climbing stairs—if the daily close doesn't hold, it could drop back to the 'safe zone' of $3800-$3700 at any moment.

2. Trading volume is insufficient: The daily trading volume for spot has dropped from 26.3 billion to 22.2 billion, and derivatives have shrunk by 20%. It’s like pressing the gas pedal to the floor but the RPM gauge doesn’t move at all—breakthroughs without volume aren’t real breakthroughs.

3. Regulatory 'black swan': The SEC is still blocking the staking feature of the ETH ETF; if there’s a delay, the market could flip in an instant.

However, in the long run, ETH's fundamentals are stronger than housing prices!

When I mention risk, it’s not about being bearish, but a reminder not to put all your funds on the 'mountaintop'. The current positives for ETH are textbook-level 'three major golden positives':

4. Institutions are starting to buy in big: Yi Lihua from LD Capital is shouting 'buy the dip', having dropped $200 million himself; Sharplink Gaming's ETH reserves have risen to $2 billion, more than the foreign exchange reserves of some small countries. Institutional money doesn’t come easily, they dare to bet on this, $5000 is no joke.

5. On-chain trading volume skyrocketed: On August 6, ETH's trading volume surged to 1.87 million transactions, with stablecoin demand exploding—it's like a supermarket suddenly being flooded with customers, leading to long lines at the checkout, the owner will definitely raise prices (ETH is that 'owner'). More importantly, 15% of ETH is locked up, and the circulating supply of ETH is decreasing, making it unreasonable for the price not to rise.

6. The Federal Reserve 'providing warmth': The probability of a rate cut in September is over 90%, funds will flow from bonds and gold to risk assets, and the crypto market is that 'reservoir'. Last November, Bitcoin surged to $69,000, and the Fed’s pause in rate hikes was a key factor behind it.

My operational suggestion: Don't be a 'gambler', be a 'hunter'

Right now, the market is divided into two types of people: one type chases the trend when they see $4200, the 'retail investors', and the other is the 'experienced drivers' waiting for a pullback at the $3800 support level. My strategy is very simple:

7. If you already have a position: Set your stop loss at $3700 (if it breaks, admit defeat, don’t force it), as long as this position holds, just wait for the 'big red envelope' at $5000.

8. If you want to enter the market: Don’t go all in at once! Build your position in three phases—wait for $4100 to hold for the first batch, the second batch when it pulls back to $4000, and the third batch at the $3800 support level. Remember: In a bull market, living longer is more important than making quick profits.

Do you think ETH can reach $5000? Will it take off directly, or will it pull back first before surging?