#BitcoinSPACDeal Traders expect Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of the year, but the actual odds are different

Despite aggressive bullish bets, market odds imply less than a 3% chance that the price of BTC will reach $200,000 by December of this year.

Traders expect Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of the year, but the actual odds are different

Market Analysis

Key Points:

The “Call Diagonal Spread” and the “Inverse Call Butterfly” would benefit from BTC being close to $160,000.

Year-end call options valued at $200,000 imply that there is less than a 3% chance of making a profit.

Bitcoin traders

BTC

€100,760

are preparing for the expiration of year-end options, valued at $8.8 billion, scheduled for December 26 at 8:00 AM UTC. More than $1 billion in Bitcoin options would activate if the price exceeded $200,000. But does that mean traders expect a 72% rise?

Call options dominate, but bears are comfortable with a price below $120,000 for Bitcoin

Currently, total open interest in call options stands at $6.45 billion, while put options are at $2.36 billion. This data indicates a clear advantage for call options, although bearish traders seem somewhat comfortable with Bitcoin staying below $120,000.