90% of losses in the market stem from: cycle confusion, trading against the trend, lack of discipline. The following '4H-1H-15M' three-layer filter has been validated in real trading for over two years and is replicable.

I. 4H: Determine trend - Only do 'understandable' directions

  1. High points and low points gradually raise → Bullish, only go long;

  2. High points and low points gradually lower → Bearish, only go short;

  3. High and low points overlap horizontally → Consolidation, wait and see or grid trading.
    (When the judgment is unclear, default to 'no trend', forced to stay out.)

II. 1H: Draw boundaries - Minimize the battlefield

  1. Use previous highs/lows, areas of high trading volume, and moving averages (20/60 EMA) to outline key areas;

  2. Only place orders in these areas:
    • Bullish: Pullback to support + moving average convergence;
    • Bearish: Pullback to resistance + moving average pressure;

  3. Anything outside the boundary is considered 'noise', do not chase orders.

III. 15M: Wait for signals - Last confirmation before pulling the trigger

  1. Only accept reversal patterns within 'boundaries + in line with 4H trend':
    • Bullish: Engulfing, bottom divergence, MACD golden cross + increased volume;
    • Bearish: The opposite.

  2. If the signal hasn't appeared, it's better to miss out;

  3. Set stop-loss fixed outside the signal candlestick 0.5~1 ATR, take profit ≥ 1:2 R.

IV. Execution Checklist
[Before Market Open]
□ 4H Determine direction
□ 1H Mark key areas
[During Market]
□ 15M Signal appears → Verify direction & area → Place order
[After Order Placement]
□ Set stop-loss/profit target → Close screen
□ After stop-loss is triggered, do not reverse position for the day

V. Risk Control and Mindset

  1. Cycle conflict: 4H and 1H directions are opposite, stop trading immediately;

  2. Single loss ≤ Total capital 2%, three consecutive losses trigger a review;

  3. Monthly statistics: Win rate ≥ 40%, Profit-loss ratio ≥ 1.5, stable profit can be achieved.

VI. Common Mistakes Comparison
• Guessing trends with 15M → Frequent stop-losses
• Bottom-fishing against the trend in 4H → Holding positions leading to liquidation
• Chasing orders outside key areas → Collapse of profit-loss ratio


By making 'look big - do small - wait for signals' a muscle memory, you will have a compounding trading system. The rest is up to time.

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