Mirror of History: Why $4000 Became ETH's 'Curse'
Pulling back ETH's K-line, you'll find that around $4000 seems cursed:
2024-03-12: First breakthrough at $4000, lowest drop to $2911 30 days later;
2024-05-27: High point of $3980, lowest drop to $2112 90 days later;
2024-12-16: High point of $4109, lowest drop to $1384 120 days later;
2025-07-28: High point of $3940, now returning to $4100 again—fourth 'appointment'.
Four times 'knocking at the door', four times 'terrifying', with declines starting at 30%, and the deepest being a halving followed by another halving. So, when ETH once again surpasses $4100, the market instinctively utters: 'Will this time be different?'
Technical Perspective: Bulls are dominant, but don't blindly trust the indicators.
Daily: MA5/MA10/MA30 bullish arrangement, slope upward;
MACD: DIF crosses above the zero axis for the second time, red bars are expanding.
History tells us: during the first three breakthroughs, the indicators were also 'beautiful', and the results were still disastrous. Therefore, technical patterns can only serve as 'evidence' and cannot be a 'talisman'.
Bull vs Bear Debate: Understand Both Sides in One Chart
Bullish Side:
"ETF funds continue to flow in, Layer2 TVL breaks $50 billion, ETH 2.0 staking rate hits a new high, the fundamentals are not what they used to be."
Bearish Side:
"Historical validation four times, bulls above $4000 are all 'paper tigers'; derivative open interest approaching $12 billion, once leverage explodes, it will trigger a chain reaction."
My Strategy: Short-term defense against pullbacks, long-term view on inflation + narrative.
Short-term:
Do not chase higher above $4100, if the 1H level volume breaks below $4000, reduce positions by 30%-50%;
Set $3800 as the stop-loss level, exit directly if it breaks.
Medium-term:
Wait for ETH to regain $4200 and hold for three days before considering adding positions;
If it dips to the $3600-$3700 range with reduced volume, consider it a buying zone.
Long-term:
As long as the Federal Reserve is still in a rate-cutting cycle and institutional fund inflow hasn't turned, ETH is still expected to challenge its previous high of $4868;
Target: Before the 2026 halving cycle, look for the $6000-$8000 range, keep the base position unchanged.
Risk control list for different players
Hodler: Treat the fluctuations between $4000-$3600 as 'background noise', turn off the trading software, and go chase L2 airdrops.
Swing Trader: Keep a close eye on the 15-minute level movements of USDC inflows to exchanges, if single-day net inflow > $500 million, be ready to run.
High leverage: Reduce leverage to below 3x, keep sufficient margin to prevent liquidation.
One-sentence summary
$4000 is not the end, nor a curse, but a mirror: reflecting your trading discipline. Don't treat history as a script, but don't ignore its existence either.