Although $ETH has returned to $4000, this does not necessarily lead to an altcoin season, because the market structure has changed:
1. Funds are concentrated in large caps, and altcoins have not received enough liquidity.
2. New narratives are still in development, lacking a universal breakout point.
3. Insufficient confidence, with short-term quick in-and-out trades.
4. Rotation rhythm is dispersed, not a synchronized explosion.
5. The macro environment is cautious, and we have not reached the stage of full FOMO.
If we really want to wait for a "full altcoin season", we may need to meet these conditions:
· ETH breaks through its historical high (stimulating sentiment + releasing more liquidity)
· A universally appealing new narrative (similar to the breakout point of the 2020 DeFi Summer)
· Macro favorable conditions (interest rate cuts, more funds flowing into crypto)
· Funds overflowing from existing hotspots (A1, Restaking hot money flowing into smaller market cap assets)
