The cryptocurrency market has risen 1.73% in the past 24 hours, continuing a 7-day increase of 6.79%. The recent market conditions are, to be honest, more thrilling than a roller coaster.
In the past 24 hours, a total of 98,639 people were liquidated across the network, with a total liquidation amount of $359 million. Long positions were liquidated for $78.4158 million, while short positions were liquidated for $281 million, with ETH liquidations amounting to $203 million.
BTC
Although Bitcoin has strong upward momentum, it has failed to rise, and funds clearly prefer Ethereum. The 4-hour chart for Bitcoin remains within the current structure, and short positions are still profitable, which can be held. If it breaks above $117,200, it will be bullish; if it falls below $115,800, it may experience slight fluctuations. Both outcomes are acceptable; although the fluctuations are small, the direction of the market is clearly different.
Today's focus: support levels at $115,000 and $112,000, resistance level at $119,200. This round of BTC rebound is making way for Ethereum (the second pie), and institutions have realized that relying solely on self-trading to boost BTC is unlikely to create a coordinated FOMO effect, making it difficult to attract more retail funds to enter the market.
ETH
Ethereum reached a historic high, soaring to $4,200, successfully breaking through the resistance level that had not been surpassed three times on a weekly basis. If the closing price this week remains above $4,080, the next target will point to $4,500-$4,800.
Today's focus: support levels at $2,605-$3,725 and $3,339-$3,486, currently no clear resistance level, critical points are $3,892 and $4,100.
In this round, ETH's performance has clearly outpaced BTC for the first time in two years, taking the lead in the upward trend. Once it firmly stands above $4,100, the market's anticipated altcoin rebounds and explosions may materialize, at which point newly listed coins, hot coins, and institutional coins may rise in succession. – It should be noted that only sector rotation can sustain the market; if there is no sector-specific explosion, it may indicate that the market is nearing its end.
Altcoin
The previous market phase was led by DOGE, and in this rebound, it and ETH are leading the rise, reminiscent of the spring of 2021. However, back then, DOGE was dominant, and the ETH sector ETC was unstoppable; the current market is promising.
At this stage, if you missed out, should you chase the rise and how to do it:
1. First look at the fundamental aspects of the sector: does the asset align with the trend, fit the hot topics, and have practical applications and development prospects? Assess whether the sector will explode.
2. Reanalyzing the market stage: is it at the bottom or in the late stage of a main upward wave, assessing the risk-reward ratio. Even for quality coins (like Bitcoin), buying at high positions can lead to losses.
ETH is expected to drive Ethereum-based altcoins to establish a trending market.
There are many Ethereum-based altcoins, and it is not necessary to cover them all; just select a few valuable ones to scout. Specific categories to pay attention to include:
1. ETH Layer2:
ARB, OP, ZK, STRK, METIS, IMX. As important support for ETH to achieve its goal of becoming a 'global computer,' the core role of Layer2 is to promote the prosperity of the ETH ecosystem through high TPS and low gas fees. Among them, ARB, OP, and STRK are three out of the 'Four Kings,' each with a fully diluted market cap (FDV) exceeding $10 billion.
2. ETH staking / restaking:
LDO, SSV, ETHFI, EIGENLSD. These protocols stem from the ETH Shanghai upgrade, transitioning from POW to POS, primarily providing staking services related to nodes. LDO is the largest service provider, with the highest locked value (TVL) in the network, with a circulating market cap of $2 billion; SSV serves as an important infrastructure in this field.
3. ETH established DeFi:
UNI, SUSHI, AAVE, COMP, CRV, MKR. As the largest innovative sector in the previous bull market, DeFi applications have permeated all aspects of on-chain daily life. However, due to industry maturity, many DeFi projects in this cycle are based on past upgrades, with limited innovation.
4. ETH meme coins:
PEPE, NEIRO. Meme coins have performed exceptionally well in this bull market segment and can be held in small amounts.
5. Others: PENDLE. This project's innovation lies in splitting tokens into principal and interest for trading future returns. Recently, it achieved synchronized growth in locked value (TVL) and token price, making it a distinctive ETH ecosystem DeFi project.
On-chain
$SPARK welcomed a second market phase this morning, approaching the previous high of 17 million; whether it can break through 20 million is key.
Recently, the on-chain meme coins have seen an increase in liquidity and activity, with a higher frequency of dog-themed harvesting. SPARK once achieved 18 million in a day and then harvested over 2 million; the second round of the market needs to be cautious:
1. If it has not broken through the previous high and firmly stands at 20 million, it is highly likely to face a second round of downward liquidation (slow pace, easily misleading retail investors);
2. Standing firm at 20 million, do not chase high, hold existing positions and find points for gradual exit; in high market cap ranges, the odds are low, and one should take profits when available. (Those seeking stability or to exit positions can start to reduce holdings.)
