July-August: Volatility layout period, phased accumulation to capture rotation dividends
Currently, Bitcoin is in a historical high volatility range. Although it briefly dropped below $112,000 at the beginning of August due to disappointing non-farm data, the Trump administration signed an executive order on August 8 allowing 401(k) retirement accounts to include cryptocurrencies, which has directly driven the price rebound to $116,000. It is expected to reach $125,000 next. This policy breakthrough not only injects liquidity into the market but also marks the acceleration of Bitcoin's transformation from a speculative asset to a mainstream allocation tool.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has formed a dense trading zone at $113,000-$117,000. On-chain data shows that net outflows from exchanges continue to increase, and long-term holders (HODLers) are quietly increasing their holdings. This is a golden window for phased accumulation—suggest using the pyramid accumulation method, gradually laying out at $112,000, $110,000, and $108,000, with a focus on ETF fund inflows (Citigroup predicts that ETF holdings will reach 1.5 million BTC by 2025) and the hoarding dynamics of U.S. listed companies (such as the Trump Media Group raising $2.44 billion for Bitcoin reserves).
September: Major rise game period, swing trading beware of false breakout traps
With the Federal Reserve's expectations of interest rate cuts in September heating up (with a probability of 95%), Bitcoin is expected to enter a major upward wave. Citigroup's model shows that if ETF funds continue to flow in alongside macroeconomic improvement, the price could soar to $199,000 by the end of the year. However, caution is needed regarding the risk of false breakthroughs after local overheating—historical data shows that Bitcoin experienced two "false breakout" scenarios in June and December, quickly retracing its gains afterward.
It is suggested to adopt a dynamic profit-taking strategy:
1. Pressure level testing: If the price breaks through $123,000 (flag pattern target), increase the position to 60%, targeting $131,000-$135,000.
2. Risk control bottom line: If it falls below $113,000 key support, it triggers a stop-loss, waiting for a second bottom opportunity.
3. Derivative hedging: Use option combinations (such as buying call options + selling put options) to reduce volatility risk while retaining upside profit space.
October-December: High-level wintering period, securing profits and policy games
The fourth quarter will welcome a dual test of policies and technical aspects: The Trump administration may advance a strategic Bitcoin reserve plan, while Bitcoin's on-chain activity and MVRV indicator (market value/realized value) need to watch for overheating signals. At this time, a conservative holding strategy is more prudent.
- Profit-taking rhythm: Reduce positions in three batches at $130,000, $140,000, and $150,000, keeping 30% of the base position to respond to extreme market conditions.
- Hedge allocation: Transfer part of the profits into gold (to hedge against geopolitical risks) and stablecoins (to guard against policy changes), maintaining liquidity in the asset portfolio.
- Technical observation: Closely monitor $108,000 (200-day moving average support) and $167,000 (Coinpedia predicted annual high), as these two price levels will determine whether the bull market can continue.
Risk warning and opportunity insights
- Policy double-edged sword: The U.S. SEC's approval results for altcoin ETFs (expected to be announced in October) may trigger sharp differentiation in the sector, suggesting a priority allocation to blue-chip assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.
- Technical warnings: If the weekly RSI breaks above the 70 overbought threshold, caution is needed for a deep correction (historical maximum drawdown reached 30%).
- Institutional trends: The debt maturity situation of major corporate holders like MicroStrategy (concentrated repayment after 2026) may trigger long-term selling pressure, requiring dynamic assessment of holding risks.
Conclusion
In 2025, Bitcoin will undergo a transformation from "policy breakthrough" to "value reassessment." The volatility in July and August is to build momentum for a major rise in September, while the high-level game from October to December will test investors' risk control wisdom. It is recommended that investors adopt a core strategy of phased accumulation + swing trading + dynamic profit-taking, while seizing certain opportunities such as ETF funds and corporate hoarding, and staying alert to potential risks such as false breakthroughs and policy fluctuations. As ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood said: "Bitcoin is becoming a scarcer asset than gold". Only by combining strategic stability with tactical flexibility can one achieve wealth leap in this digital asset revolution.
