Ethereum has finally crossed the $4000 mark, a threshold that has long become the 'battlefield of life and death' for global retail investors. Today's successful breakthrough is certainly worth noting – it's important to remember that over the past eight years, it has attempted this level three times, each time failing: a 65% drop in 2021, two rounds of over 40% pullback in 2024, and even a stumble at this level in July of this year.
Now, all eyes are locked on the candlestick chart, with both bulls and bears confronting a 'powder keg' of 677 million short positions and 1.247 billion long positions: if the price stabilizes above 4000, the bears will be blown away; if it falls below 3800, the bulls will face liquidation.
The actions of the whales are even more frantic: on one hand, an anonymous large holder dumped $49 million worth of ETH into exchanges, seemingly trying to escape; on the other hand, institutions are buying up $40.5 million off-exchange, with some companies applying for $5 billion in financing, eagerly waiting to buy the dip. Retail investors are stuck in between, feeling conflicted – buying risks becoming the bag holder, while shorting fears missing out on the rally. Technical analysts are closely watching the MACD death cross and the tug-of-war signal at RSI 60, while fundamental analysts are betting on ETF capital inflows and a 92.7% probability of a rate cut by the Fed in September.
Historical data shows that the probability of breaking through $4000 has risen to 85%, with a target looking toward $4200 to clear out trapped positions, and then aiming for $4800, or even $5500. But let’s not forget, last December when similar selling pressure emerged, ETH saw a direct 66% cut. Currently, derivative positions have soared to a historical peak of $51.3 billion, with daily liquidation amounting to $260 million, of which 90% are short 'corpses' – at this position, it will either explode into a sea of stars or blow through retail investors' bottom lines.
The gentleman is more inclined toward the former; if it can break through $4877, ETH might just soar directly into the sky, becoming a brilliant star! This bull market depends on it!
