Ethereum has finally crossed the $4000 threshold, a position that is practically a 'battlefield' for global investors. This moment is indeed worth noting—after all, it’s the fourth time in eight years attempting to reach this point, with previous attempts failing each time they got close: a 65% drop in 2021, two rounds of over 40% pullbacks in 2024, and a stumble in July of this year.

Now, the entire network's attention is fixed on the K-line, with both bulls and bears sitting on a powder keg: 677 million in short positions against 1.247 billion in long positions; if the price slightly exceeds 4000, the bears will explode; if it falls below 3800, the bulls will burst.

The whales are playing even more crazily: on one side, an anonymous big holder dumped 49 million dollars' worth of ETH into exchanges, seemingly trying to escape; on the other side, institutions are buying 40.5 million dollars off-market, and some companies are applying for 5 billion in financing, waiting to bottom-fish. Retail investors are caught in the middle, feeling the most uncomfortable—buying out of fear of missing out, or shorting out of fear of losing. Technical analysts are focused on the MACD death cross and the RSI 60 tug-of-war signals, while fundamental analysts are betting on ETF funds coming in, alongside a 92.7% probability of an interest rate cut by the Fed in September.

Historical data suggests that the probability of breaking 4000 has risen to 85%, with targets calling for 4200 to clear out trapped positions, 4800, and even some predicting 5500. But let's not forget that when similar selling pressure emerged last December, ETH was directly cut in half by 66%. Now, derivatives positions have surged to a historical peak of 51.3 billion, with a daily liquidation of 260 million, 90% of which are the remains of short positions—this position will either explode into the stars or burn through the bottom.

I believe it’s more likely the former; if it breaks 4877, it will soar directly into the sky as the brightest star! This bull market depends on you! $ETH