The CPI data from August 12th may be the biggest variable influencing market direction recently, and it's the only key data this month.

This data is not just about inflation itself, but more critically, whether it will become the "pass" for the Federal Reserve to ease policies. Once price pressures ease, there will be more justification for interest rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and improved liquidity, which would be a comprehensive benefit for the cryptocurrency market.

In simple terms, there are two possibilities.

The first possibility is that if the data is significantly below market expectations,

it would mean inflation is cooling, and funds would start to speculate on easing assets. The ones that react the fastest are usually high-risk, highly elastic targets, such as certain small-cap chain games, DeFi, stablecoins, RWA themes, and ETH-related ecosystems, which may take the lead in surging.

The second possibility is if the data is about the same or slightly higher,

then the market might take a step back first, experience a decline to give a reaction, and then look for signs of stabilization afterward, with market sentiment being pressured in the short term.

In the first few minutes after the data is released, volatility can be intense, and many times it's quantitative strategies and robots sweeping orders, so the direction may not be accurate—don't rush to follow the trend.

The true market attitude often becomes clearer only after half an hour to over an hour, once the movements of U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index stabilize.