After ETH Breaks 4000, Bets on 4200 Heat Up and Cool Down
On August 8, Ethereum broke the $4000 mark, and the prediction probability for "breaking $4200 this month" on Polymarket skyrocketed to 68%. Traders' bets reflect short-term optimism, but it's important to stay clear-headed: the probabilities in prediction markets are a reflection of collective sentiment rather than fixed future outcomes—historically, bets on key price levels often face liquidity shocks or black swan reversals.
ETH's strength comes from weakened selling pressure due to staking lock-ups, value capture in public chain ecological hubs, and the long-term narrative of technological upgrades; however, short-term concerns must not be overlooked: profit-taking selling pressure from previous highs at $4000, macro policy variables (such as Federal Reserve actions), and regulatory compliance issues could all disrupt optimistic expectations.
If we broaden our perspective, ETH's core value is rooted in the ecological foundation of Web3 infrastructure rather than short-term fluctuations. Polymarket's 68% is a window into sentiment observation rather than a hopeful entry signal, but blindly following bets will ultimately lead to being burned by market volatility.
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