🚨 Traders Eye $200K Bitcoin — But Odds Say Otherwise

$BTC – $116,701

The hype is real: $8.8B in Bitcoin options are set to expire on Dec 26, with over $1B unlocking if BTC smashes through $200K. But the market’s saying the odds are under 3% for that target in 2025.

📊 Current Setup

'''Calls dominate: $6.45B vs $2.36B in puts.

'''Many call strikes above $170K will expire

worthless unless BTC rallies 46%+.

'''Bearish side still alive — $900M in puts target

$50K–$80K.

💡 Pro Strategies in Play

=Call Diagonal Spread: Profits most if BTC > $146K by Oct, without needing $200K.

=Inverse Call Butterfly: Targets BTC around $160K at year-end for optimal gains.

🔍 Reality Check:

$140K call = ~21% chance

$200K call = <3% chance

Polymarket gives BTC a 13% shot at $200K this year.

Bottom line — flashy $200K bets grab headlines, but pros are using them for structured plays with limited risk, not all-in moonshots.

#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoTrading #Derivatives #Options