Introduction:
On the evening of August 8, 2025, Jinse Finance held a live discussion on Twitter Space titled '2025 All in Ethereum? Where is the real engine for Ethereum's rise hidden?' ETH strongly broke through the $3900 level that day, attracting widespread market attention. The program invited four senior traders: San Mu trader @SanMuTrader, Wang Buai @wangbuai, Kiki @web3Twinkle, and the last to join, Qie Ge @qqzsss, to comprehensively analyze the future trends of Ethereum from cyclical trends, corporate asset allocations, stablecoin-driven value reassessment, to odds and win rate evaluations.
1. Market background and opening
Recently, Ethereum has not only stabilized in the fluctuation range of $3300–$3900 but has also broken through 0.33 in the ETH/BTC exchange rate, showing a significant strength relative to Bitcoin. Will 2025 belong to Ethereum? Where is its real engine for rise hidden?
Wang Buai: Clear short-term resistance, focus on the September interest rate cut window
Wang Buai first analyzed the ETH trend from short, medium, and long-term perspectives: "ETH's current position is a strong resistance range; it has approached the $4000 level three times in March, May, and December of 2024 but has not been able to break through. The last round's peak was at $4800. Currently, the bulls are not weak, but the volume is not explosive. Liquidity decreases on weekends, making it hard to break through in the coming days, but if there is an interest rate cut in September, it might push towards $4500 or even the last round's peak."
She emphasizes the importance of the $4000 level, believing that it may experience short-term fluctuations and build momentum, with hopes of breaking through key resistance in the medium term thanks to favorable macro conditions.
San Mu: Exchange rate reversal is a signal of independent market trends
San Mu started from the ETH/BTC exchange rate, pointing out that Ethereum has ended three years of decline relative to Bitcoin and showed signs of reversal in April and May of this year:
"After three consecutive years of declines, the exchange rate has risen for the first time, and the trend is healthy. As long as Bitcoin does not experience a deep correction, Ethereum is likely to emerge with an independent bullish trend. $4000–$4100 is the core assessment price level; once broken, the psychological pressure of $4800 may not constitute substantial selling pressure."
He also emphasized that the current upward phase of ETH has only gone through a 'two-phase' process, and there is still room for the trend to continue.
2. Corporate asset allocation: From copying Bitcoin to Ethereum?
In the second half of this year, more and more listed companies began to increase their holdings of ETH, triggering market associations with the 'MicroStrategy effect' on Bitcoin.
San Mu: ETH has a better cost-performance ratio
He believes that in the context of US companies seeking to allocate cryptocurrency assets, ETH has three major advantages:
1. Price below BTC, better cost-performance ratio;
2. Can be staked to earn interest, categorized as a 'yield-generating asset';
3. Stable operation and high security.
"In a situation where optional targets are few, ETH is the most reliable choice."
Wang Buai: Drawing parallels with Russia's increased silver holdings
Wang Buai provided a macro comparison:
"Gold is the best hedge against dollar depreciation, but its price is already high. Recently, Russia has started to classify silver as a strategic reserve because it is cheap and has industrial value. To institutions, ETH is like silver—Bitcoin is too expensive, ETH is low-priced and has great potential; getting on board early could yield greater returns."
He also proposed the 'institutional rotation theory,' suggesting that after limited speculative space for BTC, funds are shifting to ETH for a new round of rallies.
3. Stablecoins and value reassessment
Ethereum's 'Apple Store' moment? Stablecoins have become killer applications on the Ethereum network; will they become a key support point in ETH's valuation system?
San Mu: From PVP to value-driven
He pointed out that market hotspots have shifted from early PVP games (such as meme coins and short-term speculation) to value-driven projects with practical applications:
"Trends such as RWA, DeFi projects, and treasury bonds going on-chain are emerging. The large-scale choice of Ethereum by stablecoins is because it is the most stable and secure public chain infrastructure."
Wang Buai: L2 and compliance drive implementation
Wang Buai added that L2 technology is mature and has clear compliance advantages, especially Coinbase's Base chain, which may carry a lot of US dollar stablecoin business: "Once stablecoins are fully rolled out, ETH's role will be like that of the Apple Store, becoming an entry point for global financial infrastructure, and its current price is underestimated."
4. Odds and win rates: What does heavy investment mean at this time?
She used the example of trading profit-loss ratios:
"ETH is currently less than 5% away from this round's high and about 24% from its historical high. There is significant pressure above, which does not meet the ideal trading conditions of support below and no pressure above. I will focus on cash flow projects strongly correlated with ETH, such as UNI and AAVE, as their potential for growth is greater."
San Mu: Hold, add to positions after breakout
"If you are pursuing immediate profits in the short term, it may be better to wait for a breakout above $4100 before entering. Long-term holders only need to ensure that it does not fall below $3500; the trend remains healthy."
Qie Ge: Cautiously optimistic from a macro perspective
1. Macroeconomic policy: Interest rate cut expectations have been reflected; be wary of excessive optimism
Qie Ge pointed out that recent market sentiment partly stems from high expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, but investors should not overlook the lag in transmission and early pricing:
"Many people consider interest rate cuts as direct benefits; in fact, such macro policies are often digested by the market before implementation. Changes in the global economy, especially US monetary policy, are crucial, but benefits do not necessarily manifest in the cryptocurrency space first. Institutional guidance and media information can amplify emotions, but we need to remain calm."
He reminded that short-term stimuli such as pension policies and ETF inflows are worth paying attention to but should not lead to an unconditional bullish logic.
2. Mainnet liquidity and ETF as a double-edged sword
Qie Ge particularly emphasized the liquidity situation of Ethereum's mainnet:
"Currently, the NFT market on ETH's mainnet is not active enough, the number of new smart contracts is limited, gas fees are high, and the actual on-chain trading activity is not very high. Although ETFs bring inflows, do not overlook one risk—new spot ETFs can be staked, which may drain liquidity from the mainnet."
He compared this situation to Bitcoin, believing that BTC's market share and liquidity are harder to erode, while ETH has more structural variables.
3. Technical transformation: The test after the shift from POW to POS
Looking back at history, Qie Ge reminded everyone to pay attention to the changes in Ethereum's consensus mechanism:
"At the peak of $4800 in 2021, ETH was still in a complete POW mode, similar to BTC relying on miners to maintain the network. Now it is POS, where security, decentralization, and node participation will all affect market confidence. Mainnet and L2 outages occur from time to time; although upgrades are progressing, it takes time to verify."
5. Conclusion
From cyclical judgments, corporate buyback logic, stablecoin-driven value reassessment to the balance of odds and win rates, the guests provided multi-dimensional analyses.
Whether it's the macro comparisons and capital rotation emphasized by Wang Buai, the focus on exchange rate reversals and independent market signals by San Mu, or the reminders about macro policies and technological upgrades from Qie Ge, all provide investors with a framework for thought:
Ethereum has great potential for the future, but pace and position control are equally important.
Live replay link: https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1ypKdZqMwXnJW
Note: This article is based on the live discussion of the guests and does not constitute investment advice. The market is risky; decisions should be made cautiously.
