In the cryptocurrency world, there are few coins that have a fervent supporting community like XRP (CRYPTO: XRP). Initially designed as a fast payment solution for the banking system, XRP is now expected by many investors to perform miracles – surpassing Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) to become the world's leading cryptocurrency. Over the past 12 months, XRP has increased by up to 487%, while Bitcoin has only doubled. But is this momentum enough for XRP to 'overthrow' Bitcoin? Let's analyze.
Market gap: The slope is too steep
As of August 5, 2025:
Market capitalization of Bitcoin: ~2.2 trillion USD
Market capitalization of XRP: ~177 billion USD
To surpass Bitcoin, XRP would need to increase 13 times while Bitcoin does not increase – something that is nearly impossible for an asset with liquidity and widespread influence like BTC.
Even in the case of Bitcoin dropping 50% in value, XRP would still need to increase 6-7 times – meaning it requires trillions of USD in new capital specifically for XRP, something that no coin has achieved so far, including Ethereum.
ETFs and cash flow: The real picture
To grasp the level of difficulty, look at the capital flow into Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US – only about 19.2 billion USD for the entire year of 2025. This number is far too small compared to the 2 trillion USD that XRP needs if it wants to 'flip' Bitcoin.
The prospect of cash flow into XRP on that scale requires acceptance at the global institutional level, something that no blockchain project has truly achieved.
Supply: A barrier from the very structure of XRP
Unlike Bitcoin, which has a limited supply of 21 million coins (and about 20% is believed to be permanently lost), XRP has a mechanism for unlocking from Ripple's escrow fund. While this issuance is transparent and on a fixed schedule, it still dilutes the supply, negatively affecting the price unless demand grows faster than the rate of issuance.
The 'perfect storm' scenario: Still a slim hope
XRP can only surpass Bitcoin in a highly ideal and unlikely scenario:
Ripple's comprehensive success: The entire technology development roadmap is executed perfectly, attracting a multitude of financial institutions and large investors. XRP becomes the default platform for:
Real asset tokenization
Stablecoin storage
Cross-border payments
Securities transaction settlement
Bitcoin faces a serious crisis:
Criticized for high electricity consumption (proof-of-work)
Banned or restricted mining activities in areas like the EU, Norway
Facing risks from quantum computers
Global tax policies and regulations no longer favor BTC
XRP becomes a safer, greener, and more legally friendly alternative for institutional cash flow.
Conclusion: Should one bet everything on XRP?
Although the dream of XRP surpassing Bitcoin is appealing with tremendous profit potential, it depends on a series of low-probability conditions occurring simultaneously.
Instead of betting everything on the possibility of 'flippening', investors should view XRP as a valuable asset in the cross-border payment and real asset tokenization space, where demand is likely to grow strongly in the coming years.
Even if it cannot 'overthrow' Bitcoin, XRP can still achieve remarkable growth if these trends continue to expand.
In summary:
❌ One should not expect XRP to surpass BTC in the near future
✅ XRP should be viewed as an investment in the trend of payment and digital finance
🚀 There is still much growth potential, but one must be realistic about expectations
If you need me to write a more in-depth analysis on the impact of tokenization or the technological differences between XRP and BTC, just let me know.